1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction
BundesligaRound 9
1. FC Köln15:30
Sun 8 Nov
Prediction T-24h
Bayer LeverkusenMost likelyBayer Leverkusen win · 56%
Prediction
21%11. FC Köln
23%XDraw
56%2Bayer Leverkusen
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 14 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
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Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
1. FC Köln
- W2-1BM
- L1-2HS
- D1-1WB
- L1-4VS
- W3-21H
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Bayer Leverkusen
- W4-3FM0
- W2-0RL
- D2-2FA
- W4-0UB
- L2-3SE
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
1. FC Köln
No reported absences.
Bayer Leverkusen
No reported absences.
Head to head
1. FC Köln 0Draws 0Bayer Leverkusen 2
- 1FK 1-2 BL
- BL 2-0 1FK
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
1. FC Köln
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.3last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.78last 7
- xG against / game
- 1.94last 7
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 10 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.6last 10
- Shots
- 15.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.3last 10
- Fouls
- 8.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Bayer Leverkusen
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.50last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.70last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 7.7last 10
- Shots
- 20.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.7last 10
- Fouls
- 9.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.5last 10
Line movement
1. FC Köln—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Bayer Leverkusen—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Bayer Leverkusen result here, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-0.71Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-167Defensive xG form (home)4.29Attacking xG form (away)2.32Defensive xG form (away)1.33Home form (home)6.65
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.