Odds signals
Price observations from the odds we track — never predictions of winners, never tips, never a promise of profit. A model gap is where our calibrated probability sits above the best available price; a steam move is where a price shortens at two or more books at once; an arb is where the best prices across outcomes briefly sum below 100%. Every observation is graded against the closing line in public — the live record, good or bad, is on the transparency page. Treat these as things we noticed about prices, not as reasons to bet.
Dislocation observations were withdrawn on 23 Aug 2026: graded against the closing line they were right 0 times out of 16. Past ones stay on the record below — we stop publishing a signal, we never delete it.
| Signal | Match | Outcome | Price at signal | Detail | Detected | Vs closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arb | Levante vs Athletic Club | Home | 3.70Pinnacle | Sum of best prices 99.7% → +0.3% margin1 3.70 (Pinnacle) · X 3.52 (Onexbet) · 2 2.26 (Pinnacle) | Mon 12 Oct, 18:21 | — |
| Arb | Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC | Draw | 3.60Betfair | Sum of best prices 99.6% → +0.4% margin1 2.82 (Onexbet) · X 3.60 (Betfair) · 2 2.75 (Pinnacle) | Mon 12 Oct, 18:21 | — |
| Model gap | Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu | Away | 16.00Onexbet | +48.6%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 18:21 | — |
| Model gap | Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu | Draw | 8.35Onexbet | +58.6%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 18:21 | — |
| Model gap | Rio Ave vs Famalicao | Home | 4.28Onexbet | +13.8%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 18:21 | — |
| Model gap | Nacional vs SC Braga | Home | 6.60Betano | +21.6%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 18:21 | — |
| Model gap | GIL Vicente vs FC Porto | Home | 8.00Betfair | +42.5%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 18:21 | — |
| Model gap | Estrela vs Casa Pia | Away | 4.38Onexbet | +28.0%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 18:21 | — |
| Model gap | Estrela vs Casa Pia | Draw | 3.62Onexbet | +5.7%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 18:21 | — |
| Model gap | Estoril vs Moreirense | Away | 4.00Betano | +49.2%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 18:21 | — |
| Model gap | Estoril vs Moreirense | Draw | 3.67Onexbet | +4.9%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 18:21 | — |
| Model gap | Alverca vs Arouca | Away | 3.28Onexbet | +7.9%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 18:21 | — |
| Model gap | Fiorentina vs Como | Away | 2.13Onexbet | +8.6%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 18:21 | — |
| Model gap | Racing Santander vs Espanyol | Away | 3.15Betano | +7.6%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 12:25 | — |
| Model gap | Norwich vs Portsmouth | Away | 4.60Dafabet | +40.4%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 12:15 | — |
| Model gap | Norwich vs Portsmouth | Draw | 3.90Dafabet | +12.7%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 12:15 | — |
| Model gap | Millwall vs Lincoln | Home | 1.90Dafabet | +8.9%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 12:15 | — |
| Model gap | Middlesbrough vs Cardiff | Away | 5.60Dafabet | +12.5%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 12:15 | — |
| Model gap | Middlesbrough vs Cardiff | Draw | 4.90Dafabet | +37.8%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 12:15 | — |
| Model gap | Crystal Palace vs Newcastle | Away | 2.74Onexbet | +3.6%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 12:15 | — |
| Model gap | Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon | Away | 7.60Onexbet | +15.7%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 12:15 | — |
| Model gap | Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon | Draw | 5.62Pinnacle | +29.6%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 12:15 | — |
| Model gap | PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord | Draw | 4.28Onexbet | +21.9%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 12:15 | — |
| Model gap | NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen | Away | 3.22Onexbet | +6.0%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 12:15 | — |
| Model gap | NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen | Draw | 3.92Onexbet | +8.4%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 12:15 | — |
| Model gap | Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior | Draw | 3.82Onexbet | +8.4%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 12:15 | — |
| Model gap | Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior | Home | 2.70Onexbet | +13.0%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 12:15 | — |
| Model gap | ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen | Draw | 3.96Onexbet | +4.6%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 12:15 | — |
| Model gap | Willem II vs Cambuur | Away | 2.73Onexbet | +42.2%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 12:15 | — |
| Model gap | Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle | Draw | 4.34Onexbet | +16.1%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 12:15 | — |
| Model gap | GO Ahead Eagles vs Telstar | Away | 5.70Betano | +40.7%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 12:15 | — |
| Model gap | GO Ahead Eagles vs Telstar | Draw | 4.69Onexbet | +32.9%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 12:15 | — |
| Model gap | FC Copenhagen vs Aarhus | Away | 5.50Betfair | +35.9%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 12:15 | — |
| Model gap | FC Copenhagen vs Aarhus | Draw | 4.40Onexbet | +25.3%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 12:15 | — |
| Model gap | Famalicao vs Alverca | Away | 4.75Betano | +7.2%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 08:25 | — |
| Arb | Levante vs Sevilla | Draw | 3.43Onexbet | Sum of best prices 99.8% → +0.2% margin1 2.86 (Onexbet) · X 3.43 (Onexbet) · 2 2.80 (Pinnacle) | Mon 12 Oct, 08:05 | — |
| Model gap | Levante vs Sevilla | Home | 2.86Onexbet | +35.1%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 08:05 | — |
| Model gap | Coventry vs Newcastle | Draw | 3.70Onexbet | +11.9%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 08:05 | — |
| Model gap | Coventry vs Newcastle | Home | 3.29Onexbet | +41.1%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 08:05 | — |
| Model gap | Torino vs Udinese | Away | 3.38Pinnacle | +10.8%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 07:55 | — |
| Arb | Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe | Away | 5.50Bet365 | Sum of best prices 99.2% → +0.8% margin1 1.74 (Onexbet) · X 4.25 (Pinnacle) · 2 5.50 (Bet365) | Mon 12 Oct, 06:15 | — |
| Arb | Villarreal vs Napoli | Draw | 3.86Pinnacle | Sum of best prices 99.9% → +0.1% margin1 2.29 (Onexbet) · X 3.86 (Pinnacle) · 2 3.30 (Betfair) | Mon 12 Oct, 06:15 | — |
| Arb | Arsenal vs Lille | Away | 13.90Onexbet | Sum of best prices 100.0% → +0.0% margin1 1.29 (Onexbet) · X 6.56 (Pinnacle) · 2 13.90 (Onexbet) | Mon 12 Oct, 06:15 | — |
| Arb | Racing Santander vs Espanyol | Draw | 3.74Onexbet | Sum of best prices 97.6% → +2.5% margin1 2.56 (Onexbet) · X 3.74 (Onexbet) · 2 3.15 (Betano) | Mon 12 Oct, 06:15 | — |
| Arb | Liverpool vs Brighton | Draw | 4.00Onexbet | Sum of best prices 99.1% → +1.0% margin1 2.11 (Onexbet) · X 4.00 (Onexbet) · 2 3.75 (Bet365) | Mon 12 Oct, 06:15 | — |
| Arb | Manchester City vs Ipswich | Away | 12.00Betfair | Sum of best prices 99.8% → +0.2% margin1 1.29 (Onexbet) · X 7.15 (Pinnacle) · 2 12.00 (Betfair) | Mon 12 Oct, 06:15 | — |
| Model gap | Real Betis vs FC Porto | Away | 3.64Onexbet | +6.4%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 06:15 | — |
| Model gap | Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe | Away | 5.50Bet365 | +3.4%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 06:15 | — |
| Model gap | Real Sociedad vs Levante | Away | 4.72Onexbet | +28.2%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 06:15 | — |
| Model gap | Real Sociedad vs Levante | Draw | 4.26Onexbet | +23.4%Model gap at the best price | Mon 12 Oct, 06:15 | — |