SV Elversberg vs SC Freiburg prediction
BundesligaRound 10
SV Elversberg15:30
Sat 21 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
SC FreiburgMost likelySC Freiburg win · 45%
Best price2.04 Marathonbet
Oddbert's view
Most likely: SC Freiburg win
Oddbert gives SC Freiburg a 45% chance of winning.
31%SV Elversberg
24%Draw
45%SC Freiburg
In 100 matches like this, SC Freiburg would win about 45. In the other 55 or so, SC Freiburg doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: SV Elversberg win 31, Draw 24, SC Freiburg win 45.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
31%1SV ElversbergSV Elversberg winmarket 28%
24%XDrawDrawmarket 24%
45%2SC FreiburgSC Freiburg winmarket 48%
Our model vs market
SV Elversberg +2.6 ppDraw +0.4 ppSC Freiburg -3.0 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 8 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
SV Elversberg meet SC Freiburg. The model leans only slightly toward SC Freiburg in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by League id and Pi-rating edge. See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | SV Elversbergpays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 5% more than the typical book | SC Freiburgpays 2% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 3.25 | 3.80 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 3.35best | 3.90 | 2.02 |
| Betfair | 3.25 | 3.80 | 1.95 |
| Marathonbet | 3.30 | 4.00best | 2.04best |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — SC Freiburg at 2.04 (Marathonbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for SC Freiburg (45%), doesn't happen in about 55 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
SV Elversberg
- L1-2BD
- W4-1FM0
- L0-4RL
- W4-3FA
- L0-1UB
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
SC Freiburg
- W2-0UB
- W1-0TRA
- W2-1FA
- L1-3BM
- L0-3MON
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
SV Elversberg
Absence data is not available for this match.
SC Freiburg
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
SV Elversberg
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.38last 9
- xG against / game
- 2.02last 9
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.2last 10
- Shots
- 10.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.4last 10
- Fouls
- 12.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.6last 10
Key players
- M. Krattenmacher4G 1A9 apps
- L. Petkov2G 2A10 apps
- F. Keidel2G 1A9 apps
SC Freiburg
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.62last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.14last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.3last 10
- Shots
- 15.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.3last 10
- Fouls
- 10.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.6last 10
Key players
- D. Scherhant2G 3A9 apps
- M. Eggestein3G 0A10 apps
- I. Matanović3G 0A10 apps
Line movement
SV Elversberg—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
SC Freiburg—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans only slightly toward SC Freiburg in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by League id and Pi-rating edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Expected goals (home)2.14League id78.0What's at stake (away)0.10Expected goals (away)1.76Fixture congestion (home)1.00Recent form (home)3.86
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.