Finished matches with what we predicted and what happened — plus a backtested, hypothetical view of how staking our value picks would have gone. A track record, not a promise.
Accuracy score (RPS) measures how close our probabilities were to reality — lower is better. Market movement (CLV) shows how far the bookmaker price shifted toward our pick after we logged it. Both are signals of model quality, measured in probability points, not money.
No value bets recorded yet
This ledger only stakes a pick when the model's price beats the best available bookmaker price by the value threshold. No qualifying edge means no bets — an empty book is the honest state, not an error.
4 settled predictions considered · 4 excluded for no recorded price.
Backtested and hypothetical — not betting advice, and not a real ledger. Each pick is priced at the best bookmaker line snapped before kickoff; picks with no recorded price are excluded. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.
Every settled prediction: our calibrated probabilities, the actual result, the per-match accuracy score and how the market moved after we logged it.
| Fixture | Date | Logged | Home | Draw | Away | Outcome | RPS | CLV | Receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca EstrelaPrimeira Liga | 11 Oct 2026 | 58% | 22% | 20% | 1–0Home | 0.1083 | — | ||
| Racing Santander ValenciaLa Liga | 11 Oct 2026 | 47% | 23% | 29% | 2–2Draw | 0.1549 | — | ||
| Estac Troyes MarseilleLigue 1 | 11 Oct 2026 | 46% | 23% | 32% | 0–2Away | 0.3380 | — | ||
| Cagliari JuventusSerie A | 11 Oct 2026 | 37% | 23% | 40% | 1–1Draw | 0.1471 | — |
This archive is append-only. Predictions are timestamped before kickoff and never modified.