Lens vs Marseille prediction
Ligue 1Round 10Stade Bollaert-Delelis
Lens1–2
FinalFinal
MarseilleOddbert's view
This call was made before kick-off.
Most likely: Lens win
Oddbert gives Lens a 45% chance of winning.
45%Lens
26%Draw
29%Marseille
In 100 matches like this, Lens would win about 45. In the other 55 or so, Lens doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Lens win 45, Draw 26, Marseille win 29.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
45%1LensLens winmarket 42%
26%XDrawDrawmarket 26%
29%2MarseilleMarseille winmarket 32%
Our model vs market
Lens +2.5 ppDraw -0.2 ppMarseille -2.3 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (1 sharp book) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 08 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Lens meet Marseille. The model leans only slightly toward Lens in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Expected goals (away) and Expected goals (home). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Lenspays 1% more than the typical book | Drawpays 6% more than the typical book | Marseille |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.70 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.27 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 2.25 | 3.50 | 3.00best |
| Marathonbet | 2.30best | 3.80best | 2.99 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Verdict
Oddbert gave Lens 45% — the match ended 1–2.
The most likely result didn't happen this time.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Lens
- L1-9COM
- L0-1LIL
- W2-1PF
- L0-3CBK
- W3-1ET
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Marseille
- W1-0BL
- W2-0TOU
- W4-3LH
- L0-1SG
- W5-2ANG
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Lens
No reported absences.
Marseille
No reported absences.
Head to head
Lens 2Draws 0Marseille 2
- MAR 3-1 LEN
- LEN 2-1 MAR
- MAR 0-1 LEN
- LEN 1-3 MAR
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Lens
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.35last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.92last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.1last 10
- Shots
- 14.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.0last 10
- Fouls
- 11.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.8last 10
Key players
- F. Thauvin2G 7A10 apps
- R. Aguilar3G 1A10 apps
- M. Udol2G 0A9 apps
Marseille
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.38last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.91last 9
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.2last 10
- Shots
- 12.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.8last 10
- Fouls
- 12.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Key players
- A. Gouiri3G 3A10 apps
- H. Abdelli3G 1A10 apps
- A. Harit3G 0A8 apps
Referee profile
- Referee
- Willy Delajod
- Yellows / game
- 2.4
- Matches officiated
- 5
Weather
- Temperature
- 9°C
- Conditions
- Clouds
- Wind
- 6 km/h
Weather data from OpenWeather, used under the Open Database License (ODbL).
Venue
- Venue
- Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 41,233
Line movement
Lens42%
Mon 26 Oct – Sun 8 Nov+0.3 pp
Draw26%
Mon 26 Oct – Sun 8 Nov+1.9 pp
Marseille32%
Mon 26 Oct – Sun 8 Nov-2.2 pp
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans only slightly toward Lens in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Expected goals (away) and Expected goals (home). See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Expected goals (away)1.50Expected goals (home)2.06League id61.0Pi-rating edge0.09What's at stake (home)0.12Attacking xG form (home)1.15
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.
Verdict
PredictedLens
ActualMarseille
RPS0.3484lower is better
CLV—
Words explained: