Reliability diagram
Predicted probability vs observed accuracy. On the diagonal means perfectly calibrated.
Counting only: UEFA Champions League · Premier League · Championship · Ligue 1 · Bundesliga · Eredivisie · Primeira Liga · Superliga · Serie A · La Liga.
Calibration
Calibration
| Bucket | Predicted probability | Observed accuracy | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0%–10% | — | — | 0 |
| 10%–20% | — | — | 0 |
| 20%–30% | — | — | 0 |
| 30%–40% | 40% | 0% | 1 |
| 40%–50% | 46% | 0% | 2 |
| 50%–60% | 58% | 100% | 1 |
| 60%–70% | — | — | 0 |
| 70%–80% | — | — | 0 |
| 80%–90% | — | — | 0 |
| 90%–100% | — | — | 0 |
We do not claim to beat the bookmakers. We publish calibrated probabilities and let the numbers stand.