AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen prediction
EredivisieRound 12AFAS Stadion
AZ Alkmaar16:45
Sun 8 Nov
Prediction T-24h
GroningenMost likelyAZ Alkmaar win · 49%
Prediction
49%1AZ Alkmaar
27%XDraw
24%2Groningen
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 14 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
AZ Alkmaar
- L0-2FEY
- W1-0TEL
- D1-1WI
- W3-2HEE
- W5-2GAE
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Groningen
- W5-1EXC
- W3-0PZ
- D1-1GAE
- D2-2TWE
- L2-3FS
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
AZ Alkmaar
No reported absences.
Groningen
No reported absences.
Head to head
AZ Alkmaar 2Draws 1Groningen 1
- GRO 3-0 AA
- AA 4-1 GRO
- AA 3-0 GRO
- GRO 0-0 AA
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
AZ Alkmaar
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.21last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.20last 9
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 7.6last 10
- Shots
- 17.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.8last 10
- Fouls
- 11.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.1last 9
Groningen
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.46last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.78last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.2last 10
- Shots
- 13.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.3last 10
- Fouls
- 9.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 10
Venue
- Venue
- AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar
Line movement
AZ Alkmaar—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Groningen—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a AZ Alkmaar result here, shaped mainly by Fixture congestion (home) and Pi-rating edge. The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Fixture congestion (home)0.00Pi-rating edge0.57Home form (home)8.83Attacking xG form (home)1.86League id88.0Recent form (home)5.52
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.