Paris Saint Germain W vs Bayern Munich W prediction
UEFA Champions League WomenRound League Stage - 4Parc des Princes
Paris Saint Germain W1–2
FinalFinal
Bayern Munich WOddbert's view
This call was made before kick-off.
Most likely: Bayern Munich W win
Oddbert gives Bayern Munich W a 56% chance of winning.
22%Paris Saint Germain W
22%Draw
56%Bayern Munich W
In 100 matches like this, Bayern Munich W would win about 56. In the other 44 or so, Bayern Munich W doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Paris Saint Germain W win 22, Draw 22, Bayern Munich W win 56.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
22%1Paris Saint Germain WParis Saint Germain W winmarket 22%
22%XDrawDrawmarket 21%
56%2Bayern Munich WBayern Munich W winmarket 57%
Our model vs market
Paris Saint Germain W +1.0 ppDraw +0.6 ppBayern Munich W -1.6 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 10 books) + model lean (max ±15 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 10 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Paris Saint Germain Wpays 2% more than the typical book | Drawpays 11% more than the typical book | Bayern Munich W |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 4.10 | 4.50best | 1.65 |
| Betano | 4.20best | 4.30 | 1.67 |
| Betfair | 3.90 | 4.20 | 1.67best |
| Marathonbet | 4.05 | 4.05 | 1.60 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Verdict
Oddbert gave Bayern Munich W 56% — the match ended 1–2.
The most likely result happened.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Paris Saint Germain W
- W4-0LHW
- D1-1PFW
- D1-1MCW
- W1-0MW
- L0-4LW
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Bayern Munich W
- W3-1WBW
- D2-2RMW
- W5-1RLW
- W5-0SW
- W1-0EFW
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Paris Saint Germain W
Absence data is not available for this match.
Bayern Munich W
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Paris Saint Germain W 0Draws 1Bayern Munich W 2
- PSG 1-3 BMW
- BMW 2-2 PSG
- PSG 0-1 BMW
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Paris Saint Germain W
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.99last 5
- xG against / game
- 1.26last 5
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.4last 10
- Shots
- 14.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.8last 10
- Fouls
- 12.3last 9
- Yellow cards
- 0.8last 10
Key players
Player data from 6 of 10 matches
- M. Kanjinga3G 1A4 apps
- T. Elimbi1G 1A6 apps
- Sakina Karchaoui1G 1A4 apps
Bayern Munich W
Goals
- Scored / game
- 3.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.81last 4
- xG against / game
- 0.93last 4
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.7last 10
- Shots
- 17.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.9last 10
- Fouls
- 9.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 10
Key players
Player data from 7 of 10 matches
- Klara Bühl5G 4A5 apps
- E. Imade6G 1A7 apps
- M. Tanikawa3G 2A7 apps
Referee profile
- Referee
- Frida Mia Klarlund Nielsen
- Yellows / game
- 2.0
- Matches officiated
- 1
Weather
- Temperature
- 13°C
- Conditions
- Rain
- Wind
- 9 km/h
Weather data from OpenWeather, used under the Open Database License (ODbL).
Venue
- Venue
- Parc des Princes, Paris
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 47,929
Line movement
Paris Saint Germain W21%
Sat 7 Nov – Tue 10 Nov-1.5 pp
Draw21%
Sat 7 Nov – Tue 10 Nov-1.7 pp
Bayern Munich W57%
Sat 7 Nov – Tue 10 Nov+3.2 pp
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Bayern Munich W result here; the model's main factors are Expected goals (away) and Expected goals (home). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Expected goals (away)1.94Expected goals (home)1.50Goal correlation-0.20
This is a market-anchored baseline, not our full model: the forecast is mostly the bookmakers' price with the margin removed, plus a small share from our own simple model. The factors above describe that share only. A baseline claims no edge over the market.
Verdict
PredictedBayern Munich W
ActualBayern Munich W
RPS0.1241lower is better
CLV—
Words explained: