Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia prediction
UEFA Europa LeagueRound League Stage - 4
Levski Sofia18:45
Thu 5 Nov
Prediction T-24h
JagielloniaMost likelyJagiellonia win · 37%
Prediction
31%1Levski Sofia
32%XDraw
37%2Jagiellonia
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 15 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Levski Sofia
- D1-1NN
- L0-1RBS
- L0-4AAF
- D0-0AAF
- W1-0KA
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Jagiellonia
- W3-1ARA
- L1-2OP
- W2-1FI1
- W4-0FI1
- D1-1RAN
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Levski Sofia
No reported absences.
Jagiellonia
No reported absences.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Levski Sofia
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.28last 1
- xG against / game
- 2.16last 1
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 3 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.2last 10
- Shots
- 10.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 2.9last 10
- Fouls
- 10.8last 5
- Yellow cards
- 1.6last 9
Key players
- Reinaldo1G 0A1 apps
- S. Vutsov0G 1A1 apps
Jagiellonia
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.10last 6
- xG against / game
- 1.65last 6
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 2.7last 9
- Shots
- 10.9last 7
- Shots on target
- 4.6last 9
- Fouls
- 17.1last 9
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 9
Key players
- Rodrigo Conceição1G 0A1 apps
- K. Jóźwiak1G 0A1 apps
- O. Sow1G 0A1 apps
Line movement
Levski Sofia—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Jagiellonia—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Jagiellonia result here, shaped mainly by Recent form (away) and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Recent form (away)6.46Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)6.27Pi-rating edge-0.20Attacking xG form (home)3.29Defensive xG form (away)2.38What's at stake (home)0.00
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.