Monza vs Atalanta prediction
Serie ARound 11
Monza15:00
Sun 8 Nov
Prediction T-24h
AtalantaMost likelyAtalanta win · 71%
Prediction
12%1Monza
16%XDraw
72%2Atalanta
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 14 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Monza
- L1-3LAZ
- W2-1SAS
- L2-3LEC
- D1-1PAR
- L2-3UDI
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Atalanta
- W3-1VEN
- L0-2JUV
- L1-2CAG
- L1-2AR
- W1-0BOL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Monza
No reported absences.
Atalanta
No reported absences.
Head to head
Monza 0Draws 0Atalanta 2
- MON 0-4 ATA
- ATA 2-0 MON
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Monza
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.5last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.50last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.41last 9
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.9last 10
- Shots
- 12.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.1last 10
- Fouls
- 10.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.5last 10
Atalanta
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.22last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.48last 9
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.5last 10
- Shots
- 14.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.7last 10
- Fouls
- 12.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.5last 8
Key players
- Nikola Krstović2G 1A1 apps
- F. Kessié1G 0A1 apps
- Eljif Elmas0G 1A1 apps
Line movement
Monza—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Atalanta—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Atalanta result here, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Pi-rating edge. The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-406Pi-rating edge-1.10Defensive xG form (away)4.44Home advantage (team-tuned)-49.9What's at stake (home)0.07Defensive xG form (home)1.17
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.