Real Madrid W vs Paris FC W prediction
UEFA Champions League WomenRound League Stage - 4Ciudad Real Madrid
Real Madrid W3–0
FinalFinal
Paris FC WOddbert's view
This call was made before kick-off.
Most likely: Real Madrid W win
Oddbert gives Real Madrid W a 69% chance of winning.
69%Real Madrid W
18%Draw
13%Paris FC W
In 100 matches like this, Real Madrid W would win about 69. In the other 31 or so, Real Madrid W doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Real Madrid W win 69, Draw 18, Paris FC W win 13.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
69%1Real Madrid WReal Madrid W winmarket 71%
18%XDrawDrawmarket 17%
13%2Paris FC WParis FC W winmarket 12%
Our model vs market
Real Madrid W -1.2 ppDraw +0.7 ppParis FC W +0.5 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 10 books) + model lean (max ±15 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 10 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Real Madrid Wpays 6% more than the typical book | Drawpays 6% more than the typical book | Paris FC Wpays 12% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.40 | 5.00 | 7.00best |
| Betano | 1.44best | 4.70 | 5.80 |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 5.00best | 6.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.34 | 4.70 | 6.25 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Verdict
Oddbert gave Real Madrid W 69% — the match ended 3–0.
The most likely result happened.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Real Madrid W
- D1-1ACW
- W3-1SW
- D2-2BMW
- W3-2GTW
- W3-1EW
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Paris FC W
- W5-0MW
- D1-1PSG
- D1-1HW
- W4-0TW
- W4-1LW
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Real Madrid W
Absence data is not available for this match.
Paris FC W
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Real Madrid W 2Draws 1Paris FC W 2
- RMW 2-0 PFW
- PFW 2-3 RMW
- RMW 1-1 PFW
- RMW 0-1 PFW
- PFW 2-1 RMW
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Real Madrid W
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.30last 1
- xG against / game
- 2.56last 1
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 9 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.3last 3
- Shots
- 11.7last 3
- Shots on target
- 4.3last 3
- Fouls
- 10.0last 3
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 3
Paris FC W
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.81last 4
- xG against / game
- 0.61last 4
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.2last 10
- Shots
- 16.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.1last 10
- Fouls
- 6.7last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.0last 10
Key players
Player data from 7 of 10 matches
- C. Matéo4G 0A7 apps
- É. Viens1G 2A7 apps
- O. Picard2G 0A6 apps
Referee profile
- Referee
- Heaslip Emily
- Yellows / game
- 2.0
- Matches officiated
- 1
Weather
- Temperature
- 17°C
- Conditions
- Rain
- Wind
- 20 km/h
Weather data from OpenWeather, used under the Open Database License (ODbL).
Venue
- Venue
- Ciudad Real Madrid, Madrid
- Surface
- Artificial turf
- Capacity
- 3,000
Line movement
Real Madrid W70%
Sat 7 Nov – Tue 10 Nov-0.2 pp
Draw17%
Sat 7 Nov – Tue 10 Nov-0.0 pp
Paris FC W12%
Sat 7 Nov – Tue 10 Nov+0.3 pp
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Real Madrid W result here; the model's main factors are Expected goals (home) and Expected goals (away). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Expected goals (home)2.35Expected goals (away)1.16Goal correlation-0.20
This is a market-anchored baseline, not our full model: the forecast is mostly the bookmakers' price with the margin removed, plus a small share from our own simple model. The factors above describe that share only. A baseline claims no edge over the market.
Verdict
PredictedReal Madrid W
ActualReal Madrid W
RPS0.0556lower is better
CLV—
Words explained: