Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano prediction
La LigaRound 12
Real Sociedad17:00
Sun 8 Nov
Prediction T-24h
Rayo VallecanoMost likelyReal Sociedad win · 38%
Prediction
38%1Real Sociedad
29%XDraw
33%2Rayo Vallecano
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 14 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Real Sociedad
- W3-2DLC
- W3-2VAL
- L0-3AM
- W3-2ELC
- D0-0CV
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Rayo Vallecano
- D1-1OSA
- W2-1ESP
- L1-4RM
- W3-2RS
- L2-5BAR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Real Sociedad
No reported absences.
Rayo Vallecano
No reported absences.
Head to head
Real Sociedad 0Draws 2Rayo Vallecano 2
- RV 3-3 RS
- RS 0-1 RV
- RV 2-2 RS
- RS 1-2 RV
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Real Sociedad
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.24last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.77last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.6last 10
- Shots
- 12.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.7last 10
- Fouls
- 13.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.4last 10
Rayo Vallecano
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.29last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.57last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 9 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.4last 10
- Shots
- 13.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.9last 10
- Fouls
- 14.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.3last 10
Line movement
Real Sociedad—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Rayo Vallecano—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Real Sociedad result here, shaped mainly by What's at stake (home) and Rest-days edge. The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
What's at stake (home)0.02Rest-days edge-22.1Pi-rating edge0.07League id140Defensive xG form (home)1.70Recent form (home)6.87
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.