Derby vs Bolton prediction
ChampionshipRound 15
Derby21:00
Fri 6 Nov
Prediction T-24h
BoltonMost likelyDerby win · 43%
Prediction
43%1Derby
29%XDraw
28%2Bolton
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 14 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
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Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Derby
- D1-1WRE
- D1-1BUR
- L1-2BIR
- L0-1WB
- L0-3WH
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Bolton
- W3-1WOL
- L1-2SC
- W4-3NOR
- W1-0CAR
- L2-3WH
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Derby
No reported absences.
Bolton
No reported absences.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Derby
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.08last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.77last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.8last 10
- Shots
- 12.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.9last 10
- Fouls
- 13.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.5last 10
Bolton
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.38last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.68last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.6last 10
- Shots
- 13.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.9last 10
- Fouls
- 11.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.5last 10
Key players
- J. Sheehan1G 0A1 apps
- A. Ito1G 0A1 apps
- S. Dalby1G 0A1 apps
Line movement
Derby—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Bolton—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Derby result here, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and League id. The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)82.5League id40.0Home advantage (team-tuned)8.92Away form (away)5.88Defensive xG form (home)1.82Rest-days edge3.20
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.