Alverca vs Casa Pia prediction
Primeira LigaRound 11
Alverca19:00
Sat 7 Nov
Prediction T-24h
Casa PiaMost likelyAlverca win · 51%
Prediction
51%1Alverca
27%XDraw
22%2Casa Pia
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 14 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
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Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Alverca
- W4-1FAM
- W1-0RA
- W3-1NAC
- L1-2SB
- D1-1SC
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Casa Pia
- L0-1SC
- W2-1EST
- L1-4FP
- D0-0VS
- L0-1MOR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Alverca
No reported absences.
Casa Pia
No reported absences.
Head to head
Alverca 2Draws 0Casa Pia 0
- ALV 3-1 CP
- CP 0-2 ALV
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Alverca
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.49last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.32last 9
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.7last 10
- Shots
- 11.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.5last 10
- Fouls
- 14.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.3last 10
Key players
- Vivaldo Semedo1G 0A1 apps
- André Vidigal1G 0A1 apps
- Figueiredo1G 0A1 apps
Casa Pia
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.86last 8
- xG against / game
- 1.62last 8
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 2 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.1last 10
- Shots
- 9.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.1last 10
- Fouls
- 12.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.6last 10
Line movement
Alverca—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Casa Pia—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Alverca result here, shaped mainly by What's at stake (home) and What's at stake (away). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
What's at stake (home)0.01What's at stake (away)0.17Pi-rating edge0.43Home advantage (team-tuned)71.6Defensive xG form (away)1.40League id94.0
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.