Real Sociedad vs Lyon prediction
UEFA Europa LeagueRound League Stage - 4
Real Sociedad18:45
Thu 5 Nov
Prediction T-24h
LyonMost likelyLyon win · 43%
Prediction
30%1Real Sociedad
27%XDraw
43%2Lyon
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 15 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
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Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Real Sociedad
- D1-1USG
- W3-2DLC
- W3-2VAL
- L1-2BOU
- L0-3AM
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Lyon
- W3-2CP
- L1-2LEN
- W4-0REN
- W2-1AND
- D0-0PF
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Real Sociedad
No reported absences.
Lyon
No reported absences.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Real Sociedad
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.16last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.75last 9
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 7.0last 10
- Shots
- 12.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.6last 10
- Fouls
- 12.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.1last 10
Key players
- Beñat Turrientes1G 0A1 apps
Lyon
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.63last 8
- xG against / game
- 1.28last 8
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.3last 10
- Shots
- 13.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.5last 10
- Fouls
- 11.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.5last 10
Key players
- Keito Nakamura0G 2A1 apps
- P. Šulc1G 0A1 apps
- C. Tolisso1G 0A1 apps
Line movement
Real Sociedad—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Lyon—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Lyon result here, shaped mainly by Attacking xG form (home) and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Attacking xG form (home)1.98Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-57.6Defensive xG form (home)2.45What's at stake (away)0.03Pi-rating edge-0.40Recent form (away)7.44
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.