Washington Spirit W vs Portland Thorns W prediction
NWSL WomenRound Quarter-finalsAudi Field
Washington Spirit W4–1
FinalFinal
Portland Thorns WOddbert's view
This call was made before kick-off.
Most likely: Washington Spirit W win
Oddbert gives Washington Spirit W a 48% chance of winning.
48%Washington Spirit W
24%Draw
28%Portland Thorns W
In 100 matches like this, Washington Spirit W would win about 48. In the other 52 or so, Washington Spirit W doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Washington Spirit W win 48, Draw 24, Portland Thorns W win 28.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
Your guesses are saved in this browser only.
Prediction
48%1Washington Spirit WWashington Spirit W winmarket 48%
24%XDrawDrawmarket 24%
28%2Portland Thorns WPortland Thorns W winmarket 28%
Our model vs market
Washington Spirit W +0.2 ppDraw -0.4 ppPortland Thorns W +0.2 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 9 books) + model lean (max ±15 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 08 Nov 2026
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
Your guesses are saved in this browser only.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Washington Spirit Wpays 1% more than the typical book | Drawpays 6% more than the typical book | Portland Thorns Wpays 4% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.60 | 3.30best |
| Betano | 1.95best | 3.75best | 3.25 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.60 | 3.25 |
| Marathonbet | 1.94 | 3.48 | 3.12 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Verdict
Oddbert gave Washington Spirit W 48% — the match ended 4–1.
The most likely result happened.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Washington Spirit W
- W2-0CRS
- L1-2KCW
- W1-0NGF
- W3-2HDW
- L0-1ACW
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Portland Thorns W
- W2-0HDW
- W1-0NCC
- D2-2BFW
- L2-4BLW
- D1-1HDW
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Washington Spirit W
Absence data is not available for this match.
Portland Thorns W
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Washington Spirit W 4Draws 1Portland Thorns W 4
- PTW 1-2 WSW
- WSW 0-1 PTW
- WSW 2-0 PTW
- WSW 2-1 PTW
- PTW 2-0 WSW
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Washington Spirit W
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.70last 4
- xG against / game
- 1.00last 4
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 3 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.3last 10
- Shots
- 15.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.0last 10
- Fouls
- 9.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.1last 10
Key players
Player data from 9 of 10 matches
- T. Rodman2G 2A9 apps
- Clara Luvanga2G 1A5 apps
- T. McKeown2G 0A9 apps
Portland Thorns W
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.81last 4
- xG against / game
- 1.72last 4
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.5last 10
- Shots
- 15.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.8last 10
- Fouls
- 10.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 10
Key players
- S. Smith6G 3A8 apps
- M. Weaver2G 0A8 apps
- M. Müller2G 0A7 apps
Referee profile
- Referee
- N. Bensalah
- Yellows / game
- 2.2
- Matches officiated
- 9
Venue
- Venue
- Audi Field, Washington
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 20,621
Line movement
Washington Spirit W48%
Wed 4 Nov – Sun 8 Nov+0.0 pp
Draw24%
Wed 4 Nov – Sun 8 Nov+0.0 pp
Portland Thorns W28%
Wed 4 Nov – Sun 8 Nov+0.0 pp
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Washington Spirit W result here; the model's main factors are Expected goals (away) and Expected goals (home). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Expected goals (away)1.05Expected goals (home)1.48Goal correlation0.17
This is a market-anchored baseline, not our full model: the forecast is mostly the bookmakers' price with the margin removed, plus a small share from our own simple model. The factors above describe that share only. A baseline claims no edge over the market.
Verdict
PredictedWashington Spirit W
ActualWashington Spirit W
RPS0.1726lower is better
CLV—
Words explained: