Napoli vs Lazio prediction
Serie ARound 11
Napoli12:30
Sun 8 Nov
Prediction T-24h
LazioMost likelyNapoli win · 50%
Prediction
49%1Napoli
27%XDraw
24%2Lazio
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 14 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Napoli
- L1-3VIL
- W3-0FRO
- D1-1FIO
- W1-0BOL
- L0-1ARS
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Lazio
- W3-1MON
- W2-0VEN
- D2-2AM
- W2-1UDI
- W1-0GEN
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Napoli
No reported absences.
Lazio
No reported absences.
Head to head
Napoli 1Draws 1Lazio 2
- NAP 0-2 LAZ
- LAZ 0-2 NAP
- LAZ 2-2 NAP
- NAP 0-1 LAZ
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Napoli
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.99last 4
- xG against / game
- 0.91last 4
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.6last 10
- Shots
- 12.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.5last 10
- Fouls
- 9.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 10
Key players
- Amir Rrahmani1G 0A1 apps
Lazio
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.25last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.26last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.5last 10
- Shots
- 11.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.5last 10
- Fouls
- 12.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Line movement
Napoli—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Lazio—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Napoli result here, shaped mainly by Defensive xG form (home) and Attacking xG form (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Defensive xG form (home)3.94Attacking xG form (home)3.83Pi-rating edge0.34League id135Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)116Recent form (away)8.03
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.