Rio Ave vs SC Braga prediction
Primeira LigaRound 11Estádio dos Arcos
Rio Ave0–1
FinalFinal
SC BragaOddbert's view
This call was made before kick-off.
Most likely: SC Braga win
Oddbert gives SC Braga a 66% chance of winning.
12%Rio Ave
22%Draw
66%SC Braga
In 100 matches like this, SC Braga would win about 66. In the other 34 or so, SC Braga doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Rio Ave win 12, Draw 22, SC Braga win 66.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
12%1Rio AveRio Ave winmarket 14%
22%XDrawDrawmarket 21%
66%2SC BragaSC Braga winmarket 65%
Our model vs market
Rio Ave -2.7 ppDraw +1.5 ppSC Braga +1.3 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (1 sharp book) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 08 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Rio Ave meet SC Braga. The model leans toward SC Braga, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Expected goals (away). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Rio Avepays 7% more than the typical book | Drawpays 5% more than the typical book | SC Bragapays 3% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 6.50best | 4.20 | 1.48 |
| Betano | 6.40 | 4.55best | 1.55best |
| Betfair | 6.00 | 4.40 | 1.50 |
| Marathonbet | 6.10 | 4.33 | 1.47 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Verdict
Oddbert gave SC Braga 66% — the match ended 0–1.
The most likely result happened.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Rio Ave
- L1-2AV
- L0-4FAM
- W3-2NAC
- L0-1ALV
- D3-3EST
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
SC Braga
- D0-0AAR
- W3-0FAM
- L0-1NAC
- W2-0GEN
- L1-2GV
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Rio Ave
Absence data is not available for this match.
SC Braga
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Rio Ave 1Draws 1SC Braga 2
- SB 3-0 RA
- RA 2-2 SB
- RA 2-1 SB
- SB 4-0 RA
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Rio Ave
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.3last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.74last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.74last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 3 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.0last 10
- Shots
- 8.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.2last 10
- Fouls
- 10.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 9
Key players
- J. Blesa3G 1A10 apps
- Diogo Bezerra1G 3A10 apps
- S. Clemmensen1G 1A6 apps
SC Braga
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.28last 10
- xG against / game
- 0.86last 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 3 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.6last 10
- Shots
- 15.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.5last 10
- Fouls
- 13.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Key players
- Pau Victor2G 1A10 apps
- Víctor Gómez1G 2A10 apps
- Gabri Martínez2G 0A8 apps
Referee profile
- Referee
- Claudio Pereira
- Yellows / game
- 6.5
- Matches officiated
- 2
Weather
- Temperature
- 22°C
- Conditions
- Rain
- Wind
- 32 km/h
Weather data from OpenWeather, used under the Open Database License (ODbL).
Venue
- Venue
- Estádio dos Arcos, Vila do Conde
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 12,815
Line movement
Rio Ave14%
Mon 2 Nov – Sun 8 Nov-0.9 pp
Draw21%
Mon 2 Nov – Sun 8 Nov-1.0 pp
SC Braga65%
Mon 2 Nov – Sun 8 Nov+1.9 pp
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward SC Braga, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Expected goals (away). See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-0.92Expected goals (away)2.12Attacking xG form (away)1.56Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-204What's at stake (away)0.14Home advantage (team-tuned)17.6
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.
Verdict
PredictedSC Braga
ActualSC Braga
RPS0.0637lower is better
CLV—
Words explained: