Inter Milano W vs Manchester City W prediction
UEFA Champions League WomenRound League Stage - 4
Inter Milano W1–4
FinalFinal
Manchester City WOddbert's view
This call was made before kick-off.
Most likely: Manchester City W win
Oddbert gives Manchester City W a 71% chance of winning.
12%Inter Milano W
17%Draw
71%Manchester City W
In 100 matches like this, Manchester City W would win about 71. In the other 29 or so, Manchester City W doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Inter Milano W win 12, Draw 17, Manchester City W win 71.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
12%1Inter Milano WInter Milano W winmarket 12%
17%XDrawDrawmarket 16%
71%2Manchester City WManchester City W winmarket 72%
Our model vs market
Inter Milano W -0.5 ppDraw +1.4 ppManchester City W -0.9 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 10 books) + model lean (max ±15 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 10 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Inter Milano Wpays 16% more than the typical book | Drawpays 10% more than the typical book | Manchester City Wpays 4% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 6.25 | 5.50 | 1.38best |
| Betano | 6.30 | 4.75 | 1.35 |
| Betfair | 6.00 | 5.50best | 1.30 |
| Marathonbet | 7.30best | 5.00 | 1.28 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Verdict
Oddbert gave Manchester City W 71% — the match ended 1–4.
The most likely result happened.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Inter Milano W
- W3-0AMW
- W3-0LW
- L0-6LW
- D0-0NW
- W3-0PW
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Manchester City W
- W5-0WHW
- W2-1LCL
- D1-1PSG
- D1-1MUW
- W3-2BW
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Inter Milano W
Absence data is not available for this match.
Manchester City W
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Inter Milano W
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.52last 4
- xG against / game
- 1.31last 4
- Clean sheets
- 8 / 10
- BTTS
- 1 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.3last 7
- Shots
- 13.7last 7
- Shots on target
- 4.6last 7
- Fouls
- 10.3last 7
- Yellow cards
- 2.2last 6
Manchester City W
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.93last 5
- xG against / game
- 1.46last 5
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.8last 10
- Shots
- 14.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.6last 10
- Fouls
- 8.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.0last 10
Key players
Player data from 7 of 10 matches
- L. Hemp5G 5A6 apps
- K. Shaw9G 0A7 apps
- A. Fujino1G 2A7 apps
Referee profile
- Referee
- Marta Huerta de Aza
- Yellows / game
- 3.0
- Matches officiated
- 1
Line movement
Inter Milano W12%
Sat 7 Nov – Tue 10 Nov+0.4 pp
Draw16%
Sat 7 Nov – Tue 10 Nov-0.3 pp
Manchester City W72%
Sat 7 Nov – Tue 10 Nov-0.2 pp
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Manchester City W result here; the model's main factors are Expected goals (away) and Expected goals (home). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Expected goals (away)1.81Expected goals (home)0.54Goal correlation-0.20
This is a market-anchored baseline, not our full model: the forecast is mostly the bookmakers' price with the margin removed, plus a small share from our own simple model. The factors above describe that share only. A baseline claims no edge over the market.
Verdict
PredictedManchester City W
ActualManchester City W
RPS0.0478lower is better
CLV—
Words explained: