Famalicao vs Arouca prediction
Primeira LigaRound 11
Famalicao21:45
Fri 6 Nov
Prediction T-24h
AroucaMost likelyFamalicao win · 40%
Prediction
40%1Famalicao
29%XDraw
31%2Arouca
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 14 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
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Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Famalicao
- L1-4ALV
- W4-0NAC
- D1-1SC
- D2-2EST
- D0-0GV
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Arouca
- W1-0EST
- D2-2SC
- L1-2SC
- D0-0EST
- W2-1MAR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Famalicao
No reported absences.
Arouca
No reported absences.
Head to head
Famalicao 2Draws 2Arouca 0
- FAM 1-0 ARO
- ARO 1-1 FAM
- ARO 1-2 FAM
- FAM 0-0 ARO
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Famalicao
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.95last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.24last 9
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.2last 10
- Shots
- 10.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.2last 10
- Fouls
- 11.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Key players
- Víctor Rofino1G 0A1 apps
- Marcos Peña0G 1A1 apps
Arouca
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.16last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.25last 9
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.2last 10
- Shots
- 11.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.0last 10
- Fouls
- 11.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.8last 10
Key players
- Barbero1G 0A1 apps
- N. Djouahra0G 1A1 apps
Line movement
Famalicao—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Arouca—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Famalicao result here, shaped mainly by Defensive xG form (home) and Pi-rating edge. The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Defensive xG form (home)2.23Pi-rating edge0.36What's at stake (home)0.02Recent form (away)5.31Attacking xG form (away)1.92Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)57.1
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.