Fiorentina vs Juventus prediction
Serie ARound 11Stadio Artemio Franchi
Fiorentina2–2
FinalFinal
JuventusOddbert's view
This call was made before kick-off.
Most likely: Juventus win
Oddbert gives Juventus a 47% chance of winning.
27%Fiorentina
26%Draw
47%Juventus
In 100 matches like this, Juventus would win about 47. In the other 53 or so, Juventus doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Fiorentina win 27, Draw 26, Juventus win 47.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
27%1FiorentinaFiorentina winmarket 29%
26%XDrawDrawmarket 28%
47%2JuventusJuventus winmarket 43%
Our model vs market
Fiorentina -1.3 ppDraw -1.9 ppJuventus +3.2 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (1 sharp book) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 08 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Fiorentina meet Juventus. The model leans toward Juventus, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Home advantage (team-tuned). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Fiorentinapays 5% more than the typical book | Drawpays 4% more than the typical book | Juventuspays 3% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 2.20 |
| Betano | 3.20 | 3.35 | 2.27best |
| Betfair | 3.40 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
| Marathonbet | 3.48best | 3.48best | 2.20 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Verdict
Oddbert gave Juventus 47% — the match ended 2–2.
The most likely result didn't happen this time.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Fiorentina
- W4-2SAS
- D2-2ATA
- L1-2INT
- L1-3COM
- L1-2GEN
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Juventus
- W2-1AA
- W2-0NAP
- L0-2GEN
- W2-0LEC
- D2-2REN
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Fiorentina
- R. SottilFOut
Juventus
No reported absences.
Head to head
Fiorentina 2Draws 2Juventus 0
- JUV 0-2 FIO
- FIO 1-1 JUV
- FIO 3-0 JUV
- JUV 2-2 FIO
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Fiorentina
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.3last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.54last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.52last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.9last 10
- Shots
- 16.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.0last 10
- Fouls
- 11.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.3last 9
Key players
- Franco Mastantuono4G 0A10 apps
- Álex Jiménez2G 2A9 apps
- A. Njie2G 2A8 apps
Juventus
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.28last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.02last 9
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.9last 10
- Shots
- 14.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.5last 10
- Fouls
- 11.7last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 10
Key players
- R. Kolo Muani4G 2A10 apps
- N. Woltemade3G 2A10 apps
- Z. Çelik2G 1A5 apps
Referee profile
- Referee
- Andrea Colombo
- Yellows / game
- 4.0
- Matches officiated
- 5
Weather
- Temperature
- 12°C
- Conditions
- Clouds
- Wind
- 3 km/h
Weather data from OpenWeather, used under the Open Database License (ODbL).
Venue
- Venue
- Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 43,147
Line movement
Fiorentina29%
Sat 31 Oct – Sun 8 Nov+0.6 pp
Draw28%
Sat 31 Oct – Sun 8 Nov+1.2 pp
Juventus43%
Sat 31 Oct – Sun 8 Nov-1.8 pp
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Juventus, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Home advantage (team-tuned). See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-0.43Home advantage (team-tuned)25.9League id135Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-120Attacking xG form (away)1.15Home form (home)2.47
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.
Verdict
PredictedJuventus
ActualDraw
RPS0.1459lower is better
CLV—
Words explained: