Charlton vs Bolton prediction
ChampionshipRound 14The Valley
Charlton20:45
Tue 3 Nov
Prediction T-24h
BoltonMost likelyCharlton win · 44%
Prediction
44%1Charlton
28%XDraw
28%2Bolton
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 14 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
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Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Charlton
- D2-2BUR
- D1-1BC
- L1-3CAR
- D0-0POR
- D0-0QPR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Bolton
- W3-1WOL
- L1-2SC
- W4-3NOR
- W1-0CAR
- L2-3WH
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Charlton
No reported absences.
Bolton
No reported absences.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Charlton
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.3last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.00last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.47last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.7last 10
- Shots
- 9.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.0last 10
- Fouls
- 12.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.6last 10
Key players
- I. Mesík1G 0A1 apps
- K. Ramsay1G 0A1 apps
- H. Knibbs0G 1A1 apps
Bolton
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.38last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.68last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.6last 10
- Shots
- 13.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.9last 10
- Fouls
- 11.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.5last 10
Key players
- J. Sheehan1G 0A1 apps
- A. Ito1G 0A1 apps
- S. Dalby1G 0A1 apps
Venue
- Venue
- The Valley, London
Line movement
Charlton—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Bolton—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Charlton result here, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Recent form (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-0.18Recent form (home)2.67Fixture congestion (home)0.00League id40.0Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)118Attacking xG form (away)1.56
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.