Estrela vs Benfica prediction
Primeira LigaRound 11
Estrela2–3
FinalFinal
BenficaOddbert's view
This call was made before kick-off.
Most likely: Benfica win
Oddbert gives Benfica a 85% chance of winning.
3%Estrela
12%Draw
85%Benfica
In 100 matches like this, Benfica would win about 85. In the other 15 or so, Benfica doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Estrela win 3, Draw 12, Benfica win 85.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
3%1EstrelaEstrela winmarket 6%
12%XDrawDrawmarket 12%
85%2BenficaBenfica winmarket 82%
Our model vs market
Estrela -3.1 ppDraw -0.1 ppBenfica +3.2 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (1 sharp book) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 08 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Estrela meet Benfica. The model leans toward Benfica, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Estrelapays 13% more than the typical book | Drawpays 8% more than the typical book | Benficapays 3% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 12.00 | 6.50 | 1.20 |
| Betano | 13.50best | 7.20 | 1.23best |
| Betfair | 11.00 | 7.50best | 1.18 |
| Marathonbet | 12.00 | 6.95 | 1.18 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Verdict
Oddbert gave Benfica 85% — the match ended 2–3.
The most likely result happened.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Estrela
- L1-2MOR
- L0-2CP
- L0-1ARO
- L0-2AV
- D3-3RA
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Benfica
- W3-1LP
- W1-0ALV
- W2-1SC
- W4-1ON
- W4-1CEL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Estrela
Absence data is not available for this match.
Benfica
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Estrela 0Draws 0Benfica 4
- BEN 4-0 EST
- EST 0-1 BEN
- EST 2-3 BEN
- BEN 1-0 EST
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Estrela
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.19last 8
- xG against / game
- 1.28last 8
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.4last 10
- Shots
- 13.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.0last 10
- Fouls
- 11.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.1last 10
Key players
- I. Stoica4G 2A10 apps
- A. Marcus4G 1A10 apps
- L. Antonetti4G 1A10 apps
Benfica
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.18last 10
- xG against / game
- 0.89last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.6last 10
- Shots
- 18.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.1last 10
- Fouls
- 11.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 3.1last 10
Key players
- G. Prestianni5G 5A10 apps
- V. Pavlidis7G 1A9 apps
- H. Sudakov2G 1A8 apps
Referee profile
- Referee
- Antonio Nobre
- Yellows / game
- —
- Matches officiated
- 0
Line movement
Estrela7%
Mon 2 Nov – Sun 8 Nov-0.3 pp
Draw12%
Mon 2 Nov – Sun 8 Nov-0.7 pp
Benfica82%
Mon 2 Nov – Sun 8 Nov+1.0 pp
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Benfica, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-1.59Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-400Expected goals (away)2.89Rest-days edge5.19League id94.0What's at stake (away)0.17
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.
Verdict
PredictedBenfica
ActualBenfica
RPS0.0118lower is better
CLV—
Words explained: