Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen prediction
EredivisieRound 12Stadion Galgenwaard
Utrecht2–3
FinalFinal
NEC NijmegenOddbert's view
This call was made before kick-off.
Most likely: Utrecht win
Oddbert gives Utrecht a 40% chance of winning.
40%Utrecht
22%Draw
38%NEC Nijmegen
In 100 matches like this, Utrecht would win about 40. In the other 60 or so, Utrecht doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Utrecht win 40, Draw 22, NEC Nijmegen win 38.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
40%1UtrechtUtrecht winmarket 40%
22%XDrawDrawmarket 24%
38%2NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen winmarket 36%
Our model vs market
Utrecht +0.3 ppDraw -2.2 ppNEC Nijmegen +1.9 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (1 sharp book) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 08 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Utrecht meet NEC Nijmegen. The model leans only slightly toward Utrecht in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by What's at stake (away) and Home advantage (team-tuned). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Utrechtpays 3% more than the typical book | Draw | NEC Nijmegenpays 5% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.45best | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| Betano | 2.40 | 3.75 | 2.72best |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.80best | 2.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.33 | 3.70 | 2.66 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Verdict
Oddbert gave Utrecht 40% — the match ended 2–3.
The most likely result didn't happen this time.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Utrecht
- L2-4TEL
- D1-1PZ
- W2-1TWE
- W3-1WI
- L0-5FEY
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
NEC Nijmegen
- W3-1ON
- L0-1HEE
- D2-2GRO
- W4-2DZ
- D2-2FS
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Utrecht
No reported absences.
NEC Nijmegen
No reported absences.
Head to head
Utrecht 3Draws 0NEC Nijmegen 1
- NN 1-3 UTR
- UTR 1-0 NN
- UTR 0-1 NN
- NN 1-2 UTR
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Utrecht
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.31last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.87last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 9 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.9last 10
- Shots
- 14.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.2last 10
- Fouls
- 16.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.3last 9
Key players
- Artem Stepanov5G 0A8 apps
- Y. Cathline3G 2A10 apps
- Ángel Alarcón4G 0A10 apps
NEC Nijmegen
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.57last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.70last 9
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.9last 10
- Shots
- 16.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.1last 10
- Fouls
- 12.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 10
Key players
- T. Chery3G 2A9 apps
- B. Linssen4G 0A10 apps
- Clement Bischoff3G 1A8 apps
Referee profile
- Referee
- Erwin Blank
- Yellows / game
- 2.5
- Matches officiated
- 2
Weather
- Temperature
- 8°C
- Conditions
- Clouds
- Wind
- 6 km/h
Weather data from OpenWeather, used under the Open Database License (ODbL).
Venue
- Venue
- Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 24,426
Line movement
Utrecht40%
Tue 27 Oct – Sun 8 Nov+0.4 pp
Draw24%
Tue 27 Oct – Sun 8 Nov-0.1 pp
NEC Nijmegen36%
Tue 27 Oct – Sun 8 Nov-0.3 pp
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans only slightly toward Utrecht in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by What's at stake (away) and Home advantage (team-tuned). See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Home advantage (team-tuned)23.1What's at stake (away)0.01Defensive xG form (away)1.34Expected goals (away)1.78Attacking xG form (home)1.22Rest-days edge4.18
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.
Verdict
PredictedUtrecht
ActualNEC Nijmegen
RPS0.2736lower is better
CLV—
Words explained: