Sunderland vs Chelsea prediction
Premier LeagueRound 10Stadium of Light
Sunderland15:00
Sun 8 Nov
Prediction T-24h
ChelseaMost likelySunderland win · 37%
Prediction
37%1Sunderland
29%XDraw
34%2Chelsea
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 14 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Sunderland
- L0-2BRI
- L3-5MC
- L0-2ARS
- D1-1BRE
- W1-0FUL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Chelsea
- W5-1BOU
- L0-3BRE
- D2-2HC
- L1-2ARS
- W4-3BRI
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Sunderland
No reported absences.
Chelsea
No reported absences.
Head to head
Sunderland 2Draws 0Chelsea 0
- SUN 2-1 CHE
- CHE 1-2 SUN
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Sunderland
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.5last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.49last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.41last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.4last 10
- Shots
- 13.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.3last 10
- Fouls
- 12.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.1last 10
Chelsea
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.26last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.65last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 9 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.1last 10
- Shots
- 12.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.7last 10
- Fouls
- 10.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.5last 10
Venue
- Venue
- Stadium of Light, Sunderland
Line movement
Sunderland—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Chelsea—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Sunderland result here, shaped mainly by Defensive xG form (away) and Pi-rating edge. The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Defensive xG form (away)1.80Pi-rating edge-0.11Attacking xG form (home)1.96Recent form (away)4.81Fixture congestion (home)0.00Recent form (home)1.64
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.