Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV prediction
BundesligaRound 10
Werder Bremen17:30
Sun 22 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Hamburger SVMost likelyWerder Bremen win · 54%
Best price1.75 Betano
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Werder Bremen win
Oddbert gives Werder Bremen a 54% chance of winning.
54%Werder Bremen
23%Draw
23%Hamburger SV
In 100 matches like this, Werder Bremen would win about 54. In the other 46 or so, Werder Bremen doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Werder Bremen win 54, Draw 23, Hamburger SV win 23.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
54%1Werder BremenWerder Bremen winmarket 56%
23%XDrawDrawmarket 23%
23%2Hamburger SVHamburger SV winmarket 21%
Our model vs market
Werder Bremen -3.0 ppDraw +0.8 ppHamburger SV +2.2 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 7 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Werder Bremen meet Hamburger SV. The model leans toward Werder Bremen, shaped mainly by Attacking xG form (home) and Pi-rating edge. See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Werder Bremenpays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 6% more than the typical book | Hamburger SVpays 5% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 4.00 | 4.50best |
| Betano | 1.75best | 4.10 | 4.35 |
| Marathonbet | 1.72 | 4.30best | 4.40 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Werder Bremen at 1.75 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for Werder Bremen (54%), doesn't happen in about 46 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Werder Bremen
- L0-1VS
- W2-01H
- W3-2FM0
- D2-2SP0
- D2-2BD
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Hamburger SV
- W3-1BM
- L1-3EF
- L0-1SP0
- W1-0VS
- W3-21H
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Werder Bremen
Absence data is not available for this match.
Hamburger SV
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Werder Bremen 1Draws 0Hamburger SV 1
- WB 3-1 HS
- HS 3-2 WB
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Werder Bremen
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.51last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.64last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.4last 10
- Shots
- 15.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.2last 10
- Fouls
- 10.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 9
Key players
- N. Füllkrug9G 0A9 apps
- M. Grüll2G 6A10 apps
- E. Dinkçi2G 1A9 apps
Hamburger SV
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.21last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.99last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.0last 10
- Shots
- 12.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.1last 10
- Fouls
- 12.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Key players
- A. Grønbæk1G 4A9 apps
- M. Muheim3G 1A6 apps
- Y. Poulsen2G 0A8 apps
Line movement
Werder Bremen—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Hamburger SV—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Werder Bremen, shaped mainly by Attacking xG form (home) and Pi-rating edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Attacking xG form (home)1.85Pi-rating edge0.14Defensive xG form (away)1.69Expected goals (home)1.75What's at stake (away)0.07League id78.0
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.