Aston Villa vs Sunderland prediction
Premier LeagueRound 11Villa Park
Aston Villa16:00
Sat 21 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
SunderlandMost likelyAston Villa win · 59%
Best price1.78 Betano
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Aston Villa win
Oddbert gives Aston Villa a 59% chance of winning.
59%Aston Villa
23%Draw
18%Sunderland
In 100 matches like this, Aston Villa would win about 59. In the other 41 or so, Aston Villa doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Aston Villa win 59, Draw 23, Sunderland win 18.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
59%1Aston VillaAston Villa winmarket 56%
23%XDrawDrawmarket 24%
18%2SunderlandSunderland winmarket 20%
Our model vs market
Aston Villa +3.0 ppDraw -0.6 ppSunderland -2.4 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 9 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Aston Villa meet Sunderland. The model leans toward Aston Villa, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Aston Villapays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 7% more than the typical book | Sunderlandpays 6% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.75 | 4.75best |
| Betano | 1.78best | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.73 | 4.05best | 4.60 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Aston Villa at 1.78 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
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Even the most likely result, a win for Aston Villa (59%), doesn't happen in about 41 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Aston Villa
- D4-4MU
- L0-3BAR
- D1-1FUL
- W2-1MC
- W3-1VIK
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Sunderland
- W1-0CHE
- L0-2DZ
- L1-3COV
- D0-0LEE
- D1-1LP
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Aston Villa
Absence data is not available for this match.
Sunderland
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Aston Villa 1Draws 1Sunderland 0
- AV 4-3 SUN
- SUN 1-1 AV
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Aston Villa
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.73last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.83last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.1last 10
- Shots
- 14.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.4last 10
- Fouls
- 10.7last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Key players
- N. Jackson8G 1A10 apps
- J. Manzambi3G 3A9 apps
- J. McGinn2G 4A10 apps
Sunderland
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.88last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.56last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.7last 10
- Shots
- 15.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.8last 10
- Fouls
- 12.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Key players
- E. Le Fée3G 1A10 apps
- B. Brobbey3G 0A6 apps
- N. Angulo0G 2A9 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Villa Park, Birmingham
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 42,824
Line movement
Aston Villa—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Sunderland—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Aston Villa, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge0.87Attacking xG form (home)1.76Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)305What's at stake (away)0.17Expected goals (home)1.77Home advantage (team-tuned)102
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.