FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 prediction
BundesligaRound 10
FC Augsburg15:30
Sun 22 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
FSV Mainz 05Most likelyFSV Mainz 05 win · 38%
Best price2.42 Betano
Oddbert's view
Most likely: FSV Mainz 05 win
Oddbert gives FSV Mainz 05 a 38% chance of winning.
37%FC Augsburg
25%Draw
38%FSV Mainz 05
In 100 matches like this, FSV Mainz 05 would win about 38. In the other 62 or so, FSV Mainz 05 doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: FC Augsburg win 37, Draw 25, FSV Mainz 05 win 38.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
37%1FC AugsburgFC Augsburg winmarket 35%
25%XDrawDrawmarket 24%
38%2FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05 winmarket 41%
Our model vs market
FC Augsburg +1.8 ppDraw +1.2 ppFSV Mainz 05 -3.0 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 6 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
FC Augsburg meet FSV Mainz 05. The model leans only slightly toward FSV Mainz 05 in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Away form (away) and Pi-rating edge. See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | FC Augsburgpays 2% more than the typical book | Drawpays 4% more than the typical book | FSV Mainz 05pays 3% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.62 | 3.80 | 2.35 |
| Betano | 2.67 | 3.85 | 2.42best |
| Marathonbet | 2.73best | 4.00best | 2.34 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — FSV Mainz 05 at 2.42 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
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- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for FSV Mainz 05 (38%), doesn't happen in about 62 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
FC Augsburg
- L2-5RL
- L1-2SF
- D1-1UB
- L3-4SE
- D2-2BM
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
FSV Mainz 05
- L1-2BM
- L1-4SE
- L2-3WB
- W1-0FS0
- L3-4BL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
FC Augsburg
Absence data is not available for this match.
FSV Mainz 05
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
FC Augsburg 0Draws 1FSV Mainz 05 3
- FM0 2-0 FA
- FA 1-4 FM0
- FM0 0-0 FA
- FA 2-3 FM0
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
FC Augsburg
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.80last 10
- xG against / game
- 2.64last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.3last 10
- Shots
- 15.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.0last 10
- Fouls
- 9.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 10
Key players
- F. Rieder2G 4A10 apps
- M. Gregoritsch5G 0A9 apps
- R. Fellhauer3G 0A10 apps
FSV Mainz 05
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.06last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.69last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.6last 10
- Shots
- 16.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.6last 10
- Fouls
- 13.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.1last 10
Key players
- P. Tietz7G 1A10 apps
- A. Caci3G 3A10 apps
- S. Becker2G 4A10 apps
Line movement
FC Augsburg—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
FSV Mainz 05—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans only slightly toward FSV Mainz 05 in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Away form (away) and Pi-rating edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Defensive xG form (home)2.59League id78.0Expected goals (home)1.91Attacking xG form (away)1.59What's at stake (home)0.12Home form (home)4.65
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.