Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29 prediction
Ligue 1Round 11Stade de la Meinau
Strasbourg20:45
Sat 21 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Stade Brestois 29Most likelyStrasbourg win · 46%
Best price2.26 Marathonbet
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Strasbourg win
Oddbert gives Strasbourg a 46% chance of winning.
46%Strasbourg
25%Draw
29%Stade Brestois 29
In 100 matches like this, Strasbourg would win about 46. In the other 54 or so, Strasbourg doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Strasbourg win 46, Draw 25, Stade Brestois 29 win 29.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
46%1StrasbourgStrasbourg winmarket 44%
25%XDrawDrawmarket 24%
29%2Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29 winmarket 32%
Our model vs market
Strasbourg +2.2 ppDraw +0.8 ppStade Brestois 29 -3.0 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 9 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Strasbourg meet Stade Brestois 29. The model leans toward Strasbourg, shaped mainly by Expected goals (away) and Expected goals (home). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Strasbourgpays 4% more than the typical book | Drawpays 2% more than the typical book | Stade Brestois 29pays 3% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.75 | 2.88 |
| Betano | 2.25 | 3.70 | 3.00best |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.75 | 2.90 |
| Marathonbet | 2.26best | 3.80best | 2.96 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Strasbourg at 2.26 (Marathonbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
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Even the most likely result, a win for Strasbourg (46%), doesn't happen in about 54 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Strasbourg
- L1-3TOU
- W5-1AUX
- L0-3REN
- L1-3PSG
- L1-2NIC
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Stade Brestois 29
- W2-0LYO
- W2-0LOR
- L1-2NIC
- D1-1LIL
- W5-1ANG
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Strasbourg
Absence data is not available for this match.
Stade Brestois 29
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Strasbourg 1Draws 1Stade Brestois 29 2
- SB2 1-2 STR
- STR 1-2 SB2
- STR 0-0 SB2
- SB2 3-1 STR
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Strasbourg
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.05last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.56last 9
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 2.6last 10
- Shots
- 12.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.9last 10
- Fouls
- 12.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Key players
- Gessime Yassine4G 3A10 apps
- G. Reyna3G 0A10 apps
- Dário Essugo2G 1A8 apps
Stade Brestois 29
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.86last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.21last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.0last 10
- Shots
- 16.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.8last 10
- Fouls
- 14.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 10
Key players
- L. Ajorque5G 1A10 apps
- K. Doumbia4G 2A10 apps
- P. Mboup2G 1A10 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 26,109
Line movement
Strasbourg—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Stade Brestois 29—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Strasbourg, shaped mainly by Expected goals (away) and Expected goals (home). See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Expected goals (home)2.10What's at stake (away)0.05Recent form (home)2.31Attacking xG form (home)1.23Pi-rating edge0.53League id61.0
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.