Groningen vs Heerenveen prediction
EredivisieRound 13Euroborg
Groningen21:00
Sat 21 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
HeerenveenMost likelyGroningen win · 42%
Best price2.18 Betano
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Groningen win
Oddbert gives Groningen a 42% chance of winning.
42%Groningen
23%Draw
35%Heerenveen
In 100 matches like this, Groningen would win about 42. In the other 58 or so, Groningen doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Groningen win 42, Draw 23, Heerenveen win 35.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
42%1GroningenGroningen winmarket 44%
23%XDrawDrawmarket 24%
35%2HeerenveenHeerenveen winmarket 32%
Our model vs market
Groningen -2.0 ppDraw -1.0 ppHeerenveen +3.0 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 5 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Groningenpays 1% more than the typical book | Drawpays 3% more than the typical book | Heerenveenpays 3% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.80 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.18best | 3.95best | 2.95best |
| Marathonbet | 2.15 | 3.85 | 2.85 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Groningen at 2.18 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
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Even the most likely result, a win for Groningen (42%), doesn't happen in about 58 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Groningen
- L3-4AA
- L2-3SR
- D2-2NN
- L2-5AJA
- W5-1EXC
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Heerenveen
- W5-3FEY
- W1-0NN
- W3-2ADH
- W4-0EXC
- L0-2PE
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Groningen
Absence data is not available for this match.
Heerenveen
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Groningen 3Draws 0Heerenveen 1
- HEE 0-2 GRO
- GRO 2-1 HEE
- GRO 1-0 HEE
- HEE 2-1 GRO
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Groningen
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.67last 10
- xG against / game
- 2.34last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 9 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.1last 10
- Shots
- 13.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.1last 10
- Fouls
- 9.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 10
Key players
- B. Willumsson7G 1A10 apps
- T. van Bergen6G 2A10 apps
- D. van der Werff1G 3A8 apps
Heerenveen
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.65last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.41last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.1last 10
- Shots
- 15.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.7last 10
- Fouls
- 8.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.1last 9
Key players
- J. Trenskow5G 3A10 apps
- R. Meerveld5G 1A10 apps
- L. Smans1G 4A9 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Euroborg, Groningen
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 22,579
Line movement
Groningen—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Heerenveen—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Groningen result here; the model's main factors are Attacking xG form (home) and League id. The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Attacking xG form (home)2.19League id88.0Defensive xG form (home)2.63What's at stake (away)0.12Recent form (away)8.84Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-30.6
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.