Hull City vs Brighton prediction
Premier LeagueRound 11
Hull City15:00
Sun 22 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
BrightonMost likelyBrighton win · 60%
Best price1.57 Betano
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Brighton win
Oddbert gives Brighton a 60% chance of winning.
18%Hull City
22%Draw
60%Brighton
In 100 matches like this, Brighton would win about 60. In the other 40 or so, Brighton doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Hull City win 18, Draw 22, Brighton win 60.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
18%1Hull CityHull City winmarket 16%
22%XDrawDrawmarket 21%
60%2BrightonBrighton winmarket 63%
Our model vs market
Hull City +2.2 ppDraw +0.8 ppBrighton -3.0 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 6 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Hull City meet Brighton. The model leans toward Brighton, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Pi-rating edge. See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Hull Citypays 5% more than the typical book | Drawpays 6% more than the typical book | Brightonpays 2% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 5.50 | 4.10 | 1.55 |
| Betano | 5.70 | 4.25 | 1.57best |
| Marathonbet | 6.00best | 4.50best | 1.53 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Brighton at 1.57 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for Brighton (60%), doesn't happen in about 40 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Hull City
- L0-1ARS
- D2-2IPS
- D1-1BRE
- L0-1FUL
- D2-2EVE
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Brighton
- W2-0BRE
- W1-0GET
- W1-0MC
- L0-2LIV
- D0-0FJ
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Hull City
Absence data is not available for this match.
Brighton
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Hull City
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.99last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.47last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.1last 10
- Shots
- 10.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.1last 10
- Fouls
- 11.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.9last 10
Key players
- M. Belloumi3G 2A9 apps
- O. McBurnie2G 2A10 apps
- S. Ajayi1G 0A10 apps
Brighton
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.87last 10
- xG against / game
- 0.89last 10
- Clean sheets
- 9 / 10
- BTTS
- 0 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.6last 10
- Shots
- 18.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.0last 10
- Fouls
- 11.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.3last 9
Key players
- P. Groß3G 4A10 apps
- C. Kostoulas3G 2A7 apps
- G. Rutter2G 2A9 apps
Line movement
Hull City—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Brighton—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Brighton, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Pi-rating edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Attacking xG form (away)1.47Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-173Pi-rating edge-0.53Expected goals (home)0.88Home advantage (team-tuned)22.6Attacking xG form (home)0.92
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.