Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07 prediction
BundesligaRound 10
Bayer Leverkusen15:30
Sat 21 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
SC Paderborn 07Most likelyBayer Leverkusen win · 75%
Best price1.27 Betano
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Bayer Leverkusen win
Oddbert gives Bayer Leverkusen a 75% chance of winning.
75%Bayer Leverkusen
15%Draw
10%SC Paderborn 07
In 100 matches like this, Bayer Leverkusen would win about 75. In the other 25 or so, Bayer Leverkusen doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Bayer Leverkusen win 75, Draw 15, SC Paderborn 07 win 10.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
75%1Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen winmarket 78%
15%XDrawDrawmarket 13%
10%2SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 07 winmarket 9%
Our model vs market
Bayer Leverkusen -3.0 ppDraw +1.5 ppSC Paderborn 07 +1.5 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 7 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Bayer Leverkusen meet SC Paderborn 07. The model leans toward Bayer Leverkusen, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Defensive xG form (away). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Bayer Leverkusenpays 2% more than the typical book | Drawpays 9% more than the typical book | SC Paderborn 07pays 14% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.25 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| Betano | 1.27best | 6.40 | 9.25 |
| Marathonbet | 1.25 | 6.75best | 10.50best |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Bayer Leverkusen at 1.27 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
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Even the most likely result, a win for Bayer Leverkusen (75%), doesn't happen in about 25 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Bayer Leverkusen
- W2-11FK
- L0-1MAR
- L2-4VS
- L0-31H
- W2-0OFI
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
SC Paderborn 07
- D2-2EF
- D0-0BM
- W1-0HS
- D2-2WB
- L0-2VS
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Bayer Leverkusen
Absence data is not available for this match.
SC Paderborn 07
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Bayer Leverkusen
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.3last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.17last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.54last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.4last 10
- Shots
- 17.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 7.1last 10
- Fouls
- 12.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.1last 10
Key players
- P. Schick7G 1A10 apps
- I. Maza3G 2A9 apps
- Aleix García1G 3A10 apps
SC Paderborn 07
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.10last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.53last 9
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.0last 10
- Shots
- 16.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.1last 10
- Fouls
- 11.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.6last 10
Key players
- S. Tigges2G 1A10 apps
- S. Marino2G 0A10 apps
- L. Curda1G 1A10 apps
Line movement
Bayer Leverkusen—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
SC Paderborn 07—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Bayer Leverkusen, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Defensive xG form (away). See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge0.76Defensive xG form (away)1.61Attacking xG form (home)1.74What's at stake (home)0.19League id78.0Expected goals (away)0.67
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.