Napoli vs Torino prediction
Serie ARound 12
Napoli20:45
Sat 21 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
TorinoMost likelyNapoli win · 64%
Best price1.47 Betano
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Napoli win
Oddbert gives Napoli a 64% chance of winning.
64%Napoli
21%Draw
15%Torino
In 100 matches like this, Napoli would win about 64. In the other 36 or so, Napoli doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Napoli win 64, Draw 21, Torino win 15.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
64%1NapoliNapoli winmarket 67%
21%XDrawDrawmarket 20%
15%2TorinoTorino winmarket 13%
Our model vs market
Napoli -3.0 ppDraw +1.2 ppTorino +1.8 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 9 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Match previewSummary
Napoli meet Torino. The model leans toward Napoli, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Expected goals (home). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Napolipays 2% more than the typical book | Drawpays 4% more than the typical book | Torinopays 7% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.45 | 4.20 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.47best | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 4.50 | 6.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.45 | 4.70best | 6.95best |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Napoli at 1.47 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for Napoli (64%), doesn't happen in about 36 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Napoli
- D1-1LAZ
- L1-4FP
- L0-2JUV
- W4-1MON
- D3-3AR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Torino
- D1-1LEC
- L0-2FRO
- L1-3COM
- W3-2MON
- W3-0PAR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Napoli
Absence data is not available for this match.
Torino
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Napoli 3Draws 0Torino 1
- NAP 2-1 TOR
- TOR 1-0 NAP
- NAP 2-0 TOR
- TOR 0-1 NAP
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Napoli
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.86last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.40last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.8last 10
- Shots
- 15.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.2last 10
- Fouls
- 9.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Key players
- M. Politano2G 4A10 apps
- S. McTominay5G 0A9 apps
- K. De Bruyne3G 1A10 apps
Torino
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.5last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.16last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.34last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.0last 10
- Shots
- 11.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.8last 10
- Fouls
- 9.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.2last 9
Key players
- R. Belghali1G 3A9 apps
- C. Adams3G 0A8 apps
- G. Simeone2G 1A10 apps
Line movement
Napoli—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Torino—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Napoli, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Expected goals (home). See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge0.79Expected goals (home)1.88Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)232Rest-days edge-0.90League id135What's at stake (home)0.02
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.