Telstar vs PEC Zwolle prediction
EredivisieRound 13
Telstar21:00
Sat 21 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
PEC ZwolleMost likelyTelstar win · 46%
Best price2.02 Betano
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Telstar win
Oddbert gives Telstar a 46% chance of winning.
46%Telstar
23%Draw
31%PEC Zwolle
In 100 matches like this, Telstar would win about 46. In the other 54 or so, Telstar doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Telstar win 46, Draw 23, PEC Zwolle win 31.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
46%1TelstarTelstar winmarket 48%
23%XDrawDrawmarket 24%
31%2PEC ZwollePEC Zwolle winmarket 28%
Our model vs market
Telstar -1.6 ppDraw -1.4 ppPEC Zwolle +3.0 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 6 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Telstarpays 1% more than the typical book | Draw | PEC Zwollepays 4% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.75 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 2.02best | 3.80 | 3.45best |
| Marathonbet | 1.96 | 3.80best | 3.32 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Telstar at 2.02 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
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Even the most likely result, a win for Telstar (46%), doesn't happen in about 54 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Telstar
- D2-2FS
- W4-2UTR
- L2-3GAE
- L3-4FEY
- D2-2ADH
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
PEC Zwolle
- D1-1WI
- W1-0ADH
- D1-1UTR
- W4-1GAE
- L0-1CAM
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Telstar
Absence data is not available for this match.
PEC Zwolle
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Telstar 0Draws 0PEC Zwolle 2
- PZ 4-1 TEL
- TEL 0-2 PZ
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Telstar
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.26last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.93last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.3last 10
- Shots
- 13.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.1last 10
- Fouls
- 10.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.6last 9
Key players
- T. Owusu5G 1A10 apps
- P. Brouwer2G 2A9 apps
- N. Shenkman1G 2A7 apps
PEC Zwolle
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.14last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.63last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.1last 10
- Shots
- 14.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.6last 10
- Fouls
- 11.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 9
Key players
- D. Mbayo1G 4A10 apps
- K. Kostons4G 0A8 apps
- T. Oosting2G 1A10 apps
Line movement
Telstar—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
PEC Zwolle—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Telstar result here; the model's main factors are Defensive xG form (home) and What's at stake (away). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Defensive xG form (home)1.93What's at stake (away)0.13Pi-rating edge0.48Expected goals (home)1.90What's at stake (home)0.23Expected goals (away)1.17
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.