Liverpool vs Manchester United prediction
Premier LeagueRound 11Anfield
Liverpool17:30
Sun 22 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Manchester UnitedMost likelyLiverpool win · 50%
Best price1.85 Betano
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Liverpool win
Oddbert gives Liverpool a 50% chance of winning.
50%Liverpool
25%Draw
25%Manchester United
In 100 matches like this, Liverpool would win about 50. In the other 50 or so, Liverpool doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Liverpool win 50, Draw 25, Manchester United win 25.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
50%1LiverpoolLiverpool winmarket 53%
25%XDrawDrawmarket 24%
25%2Manchester UnitedManchester United winmarket 23%
Our model vs market
Liverpool -3.0 ppDraw +1.3 ppManchester United +1.7 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 8 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Liverpool meet Manchester United. The model leans toward Liverpool, shaped mainly by Away form (away) and Attacking xG form (away). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Liverpoolpays 2% more than the typical book | Drawpays 5% more than the typical book | Manchester Unitedpays 9% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.83 | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| Betano | 1.85best | 3.90 | 3.95 |
| Betfair | 1.73 | 4.00 | 4.33best |
| Marathonbet | 1.81 | 4.10best | 4.10 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Liverpool at 1.85 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for Liverpool (50%), doesn't happen in about 50 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Liverpool
- W3-1CP
- L2-3FEN
- L0-1ARS
- W2-0BRI
- W4-3VIL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Manchester United
- D4-4AV
- W3-2AR
- L0-2CHE
- L0-3BOU
- L1-4COM
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Liverpool
Absence data is not available for this match.
Manchester United
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Liverpool 1Draws 1Manchester United 2
- MU 3-2 LIV
- LIV 1-2 MU
- LIV 2-2 MU
- MU 0-3 LIV
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Liverpool
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.5last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.76last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.32last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 7.0last 10
- Shots
- 18.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.1last 10
- Fouls
- 13.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.5last 10
Key players
- B. Barcola3G 3A10 apps
- A. Isak5G 0A8 apps
- F. Wirtz2G 3A10 apps
Manchester United
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.50last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.83last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.8last 10
- Shots
- 16.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.9last 10
- Fouls
- 12.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.3last 10
Key players
- Matheus Cunha3G 1A10 apps
- Bruno Fernandes2G 1A9 apps
- P. Dorgu1G 2A3 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Anfield, Liverpool
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 61,276
Line movement
Liverpool—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Manchester United—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Liverpool, shaped mainly by Away form (away) and Attacking xG form (away). See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Away form (away)1.91Attacking xG form (away)1.91Attacking xG form (home)1.77Defensive xG form (home)1.48League id39.0Expected goals (home)2.06
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.