Getafe vs Atletico Madrid prediction
La LigaRound 13
Getafe21:00
Sun 22 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Atletico MadridMost likelyAtletico Madrid win · 56%
Best price1.66 Marathonbet
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Atletico Madrid win
Oddbert gives Atletico Madrid a 56% chance of winning.
19%Getafe
25%Draw
56%Atletico Madrid
In 100 matches like this, Atletico Madrid would win about 56. In the other 44 or so, Atletico Madrid doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Getafe win 19, Draw 25, Atletico Madrid win 56.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
19%1GetafeGetafe winmarket 16%
25%XDrawDrawmarket 25%
56%2Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid winmarket 59%
Our model vs market
Getafe +3.0 ppDraw -0.1 ppAtletico Madrid -2.9 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 6 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Getafe meet Atletico Madrid. The model leans toward Atletico Madrid, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Getafepays 2% more than the typical book | Drawpays 1% more than the typical book | Atletico Madridpays 2% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 5.25 | 3.70 | 1.62 |
| Betano | 5.60 | 3.75 | 1.65 |
| Marathonbet | 5.70best | 3.78best | 1.66best |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Atletico Madrid at 1.66 (Marathonbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
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Even the most likely result, a win for Atletico Madrid (56%), doesn't happen in about 44 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Getafe
- L0-2VIL
- L0-1BRI
- W3-1SEV
- L0-4AC
- L2-5FL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Atletico Madrid
- L1-2BAR
- L0-2BM
- W2-0LEV
- W1-0DLC
- D1-1VS
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Getafe
Absence data is not available for this match.
Atletico Madrid
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Getafe 1Draws 0Atletico Madrid 3
- AM 1-0 GET
- GET 0-1 AM
- GET 2-1 AM
- AM 1-0 GET
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Getafe
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.85last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.39last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.9last 10
- Shots
- 11.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.5last 10
- Fouls
- 13.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.9last 10
Key players
- M. Satriano2G 2A10 apps
- Iván Azón2G 0A8 apps
- E. Ünal1G 1A8 apps
Atletico Madrid
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.68last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.17last 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.3last 10
- Shots
- 15.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.7last 10
- Fouls
- 11.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Key players
- Álex Baena2G 3A10 apps
- Álex Grimaldo3G 1A10 apps
- J. David2G 2A9 apps
Line movement
Getafe—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Atletico Madrid—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Atletico Madrid, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-0.71Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-240League id140Attacking xG form (away)1.08What's at stake (away)0.01What's at stake (home)0.13
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.