Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia prediction
La LigaRound 13
Rayo Vallecano16:15
Sat 21 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
ValenciaMost likelyRayo Vallecano win · 45%
Best price2.07 Marathonbet
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Rayo Vallecano win
Oddbert gives Rayo Vallecano a 45% chance of winning.
45%Rayo Vallecano
27%Draw
28%Valencia
In 100 matches like this, Rayo Vallecano would win about 45. In the other 55 or so, Rayo Vallecano doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Rayo Vallecano win 45, Draw 27, Valencia win 28.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
45%1Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano winmarket 48%
27%XDrawDrawmarket 27%
28%2ValenciaValencia winmarket 25%
Our model vs market
Rayo Vallecano -2.9 ppDraw -0.1 ppValencia +3.0 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 9 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Match previewSummary
Rayo Vallecano meet Valencia. Our forecast (the market price with a small adjustment from our model) leans toward Rayo Vallecano; the model's main factors are Expected goals (away) and Pi-rating edge. See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Rayo Vallecanopays 5% more than the typical book | Drawpays 3% more than the typical book | Valenciapays 3% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| Betano | 2.02 | 3.45 | 3.80best |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.07best | 3.50best | 3.64 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Rayo Vallecano at 2.07 (Marathonbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for Rayo Vallecano (45%), doesn't happen in about 55 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Rayo Vallecano
- L0-1RS
- W3-0CV
- L0-3ELC
- D1-1GET
- D1-1OSA
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Valencia
- L0-3RM
- W1-0ELC
- L1-2VIL
- D0-0AC
- D2-2RS
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Rayo Vallecano
Absence data is not available for this match.
Valencia
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Rayo Vallecano 1Draws 3Valencia 0
- VAL 1-1 RV
- RV 1-1 VAL
- RV 1-1 VAL
- VAL 0-1 RV
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Rayo Vallecano
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.32last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.60last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.6last 10
- Shots
- 15.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.0last 10
- Fouls
- 11.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.3last 10
Key players
- Sergio Camello7G 2A10 apps
- Jorge de Frutos2G 2A8 apps
- Álvaro García2G 2A9 apps
Valencia
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.99last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.65last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.7last 10
- Shots
- 9.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 2.9last 10
- Fouls
- 13.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.5last 10
Key players
- U. Sadiq2G 0A3 apps
- Javi Guerra0G 2A10 apps
- Luis Rioja1G 0A7 apps
Line movement
Rayo Vallecano—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Valencia—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast (the market price with a small adjustment from our model) leans toward Rayo Vallecano; the model's main factors are Expected goals (away) and Pi-rating edge. This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Expected goals (away)0.90Pi-rating edge0.46Attacking xG form (away)1.11Expected goals (home)1.41Defensive xG form (away)1.27What's at stake (away)0.07
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.