Athletic Club vs Espanyol prediction
La LigaRound 13
Athletic Club21:00
Fri 20 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
EspanyolMost likelyAthletic Club win · 63%
Best price1.50 Marathonbet
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Athletic Club win
Oddbert gives Athletic Club a 63% chance of winning.
63%Athletic Club
22%Draw
15%Espanyol
In 100 matches like this, Athletic Club would win about 63. In the other 37 or so, Athletic Club doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Athletic Club win 63, Draw 22, Espanyol win 15.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
63%1Athletic ClubAthletic Club winmarket 66%
22%XDrawDrawmarket 21%
15%2EspanyolEspanyol winmarket 13%
Our model vs market
Athletic Club -3.0 ppDraw +0.9 ppEspanyol +2.1 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 9 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Match previewSummary
Athletic Club meet Espanyol. The model leans toward Athletic Club, shaped mainly by Attacking xG form (home) and Pi-rating edge. See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Athletic Clubpays 2% more than the typical book | Drawpays 6% more than the typical book | Espanyolpays 10% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.48 | 4.10 | 7.00best |
| Betano | 1.47 | 4.40best | 6.90 |
| Betfair | 1.47 | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.50best | 4.35 | 6.80 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Athletic Club at 1.50 (Marathonbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
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Even the most likely result, a win for Athletic Club (63%), doesn't happen in about 37 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Athletic Club
- D1-1OSA
- W2-1RS
- W4-0GET
- L1-3LEV
- D0-0VAL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Espanyol
- D0-0DLC
- W1-0VIL
- L1-2RS
- L0-1AM
- D1-1MAL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Athletic Club
Absence data is not available for this match.
Espanyol
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Athletic Club 1Draws 1Espanyol 2
- ESP 2-0 AC
- AC 1-2 ESP
- ESP 1-1 AC
- AC 4-1 ESP
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Athletic Club
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.69last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.15last 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.3last 10
- Shots
- 14.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.7last 10
- Fouls
- 11.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.8last 10
Key players
- Álex Berenguer4G 4A10 apps
- I. Williams3G 2A10 apps
- Nico Williams2G 1A9 apps
Espanyol
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.92last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.26last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.7last 10
- Shots
- 11.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.2last 10
- Fouls
- 15.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 3.0last 10
Key players
- Roberto Fernández4G 0A10 apps
- Javier Hernandez0G 4A10 apps
- Marcos Fernández1G 1A9 apps
Line movement
Athletic Club—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Espanyol—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Athletic Club, shaped mainly by Attacking xG form (home) and Pi-rating edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Attacking xG form (home)1.69Clean-sheet streak (away)2.00Pi-rating edge0.48What's at stake (away)0.10Attacking xG form (away)0.65What's at stake (home)0.01
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.