Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo prediction
La LigaRound 13
Real Madrid21:00
Sat 21 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Celta VigoMost likelyReal Madrid win · 80%
Best price1.22 Marathonbet
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Real Madrid win
Oddbert gives Real Madrid a 80% chance of winning.
80%Real Madrid
14%Draw
6%Celta Vigo
In 100 matches like this, Real Madrid would win about 80. In the other 20 or so, Real Madrid doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Real Madrid win 80, Draw 14, Celta Vigo win 6.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
80%1Real MadridReal Madrid winmarket 83%
14%XDrawDrawmarket 11%
6%2Celta VigoCelta Vigo winmarket 6%
Our model vs market
Real Madrid -3.0 ppDraw +2.1 ppCelta Vigo +0.9 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 9 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Match previewSummary
Real Madrid meet Celta Vigo. The model leans toward Real Madrid, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Home advantage (team-tuned). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Real Madridpays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 6% more than the typical book | Celta Vigopays 12% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.18 | 6.50 | 13.00 |
| Betano | 1.22 | 6.80 | 11.75 |
| Betfair | 1.17 | 7.00best | 12.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.22best | 6.65 | 13.75best |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Real Madrid at 1.22 (Marathonbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for Real Madrid (80%), doesn't happen in about 20 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Real Madrid
- W3-0VAL
- W3-2AAF
- W3-0RS
- W2-1BAR
- W4-1RL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Celta Vigo
- D0-0LEV
- L1-2USG
- L0-3RV
- D0-0RB
- W2-1CEL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Real Madrid
Absence data is not available for this match.
Celta Vigo
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Real Madrid 3Draws 0Celta Vigo 1
- CV 1-2 RM
- RM 0-2 CV
- RM 3-2 CV
- CV 1-2 RM
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Real Madrid
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.36last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.10last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.6last 10
- Shots
- 16.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.9last 10
- Fouls
- 9.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Key players
- Kylian Mbappé10G 2A10 apps
- Y. Diomande4G 4A10 apps
- A. Güler3G 4A9 apps
Celta Vigo
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.28last 10
- xG against / game
- 0.95last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.8last 10
- Shots
- 13.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.9last 10
- Fouls
- 12.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 10
Key players
- Javi Rodríguez3G 1A8 apps
- Hugo Álvarez1G 3A10 apps
- Pablo Durán3G 0A8 apps
Line movement
Real Madrid—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Celta Vigo—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Real Madrid, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Home advantage (team-tuned). See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge1.46Home advantage (team-tuned)134Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)511Attacking xG form (home)2.81Home form (home)12.5Recent form (away)2.62
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.