Lens vs Toulouse prediction
Ligue 1Round 11Stade Bollaert-Delelis
Lens20:45
Sat 21 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
ToulouseMost likelyLens win · 52%
Best price1.78 Betano
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Lens win
Oddbert gives Lens a 52% chance of winning.
52%Lens
24%Draw
24%Toulouse
In 100 matches like this, Lens would win about 52. In the other 48 or so, Lens doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Lens win 52, Draw 24, Toulouse win 24.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
52%1LensLens winmarket 55%
24%XDrawDrawmarket 23%
24%2ToulouseToulouse winmarket 22%
Our model vs market
Lens -3.0 ppDraw +1.0 ppToulouse +2.0 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 9 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Lens meet Toulouse. The model leans toward Lens, shaped mainly by Expected goals (home) and What's at stake (away). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Lenspays 2% more than the typical book | Drawpays 4% more than the typical book | Toulousepays 6% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 3.90 | 4.33best |
| Betano | 1.78best | 3.95 | 4.25 |
| Betfair | 1.73 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.77 | 4.10best | 4.30 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Lens at 1.78 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for Lens (52%), doesn't happen in about 48 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Lens
- L1-2MAR
- L1-9COM
- L0-1LIL
- W2-1PF
- L0-3CBK
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Toulouse
- W3-1STR
- L0-2MAR
- D0-0ET
- W3-0LM
- D2-2MON
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Lens
Absence data is not available for this match.
Toulouse
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Lens 2Draws 1Toulouse 1
- LEN 3-2 TOU
- TOU 0-3 LEN
- TOU 1-1 LEN
- LEN 0-1 TOU
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Lens
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.37last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.93last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.6last 10
- Shots
- 13.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.8last 10
- Fouls
- 12.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.8last 10
Key players
- F. Thauvin2G 7A10 apps
- R. Aguilar2G 1A10 apps
- M. Udol2G 0A9 apps
Toulouse
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.76last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.25last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.3last 10
- Shots
- 12.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.7last 10
- Fouls
- 15.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.1last 10
Key players
- C. Tengstedt5G 1A8 apps
- C. Cásseres0G 6A10 apps
- T. Jørgensen3G 1A10 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 41,233
Line movement
Lens—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Toulouse—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Lens, shaped mainly by Expected goals (home) and What's at stake (away). See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Expected goals (home)1.95What's at stake (away)0.02Recent form (home)1.52What's at stake (home)0.11Fixture congestion (home)2.00Defensive xG form (away)0.85
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.