Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest prediction
Premier LeagueRound 11
Bournemouth16:00
Sat 21 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Nottingham ForestMost likelyBournemouth win · 50%
Best price2.12 Betano
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Bournemouth win
Oddbert gives Bournemouth a 50% chance of winning.
50%Bournemouth
26%Draw
24%Nottingham Forest
In 100 matches like this, Bournemouth would win about 50. In the other 50 or so, Bournemouth doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Bournemouth win 50, Draw 26, Nottingham Forest win 24.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
50%1BournemouthBournemouth winmarket 47%
26%XDrawDrawmarket 26%
24%2Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest winmarket 27%
Our model vs market
Bournemouth +3.0 ppDraw -0.3 ppNottingham Forest -2.7 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 9 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Bournemouth meet Nottingham Forest. The model leans toward Bournemouth, shaped mainly by Attacking xG form (home) and Recent form (home). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Bournemouthpays 5% more than the typical book | Drawpays 4% more than the typical book | Nottingham Forestpays 6% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.60best |
| Betano | 2.12best | 3.55 | 3.40 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.40 |
| Marathonbet | 2.03 | 3.68best | 3.58 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Bournemouth at 2.12 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
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- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for Bournemouth (50%), doesn't happen in about 50 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Bournemouth
- W2-1IPS
- W3-1SP
- W2-0LEE
- W3-0MU
- W3-0AM
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Nottingham Forest
- W3-1MC
- L0-2BRE
- D1-1IPS
- L0-1ARS
- L1-3CP
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Bournemouth
Absence data is not available for this match.
Nottingham Forest
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Bournemouth 2Draws 2Nottingham Forest 0
- NF 1-1 BOU
- BOU 2-0 NF
- BOU 5-0 NF
- NF 1-1 BOU
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Bournemouth
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.25last 9
- xG against / game
- 0.95last 9
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.6last 10
- Shots
- 15.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.2last 10
- Fouls
- 14.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.4last 10
Key players
- Evanilson7G 2A10 apps
- Rayan4G 0A10 apps
- J. Kluivert2G 2A7 apps
Nottingham Forest
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.3last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.52last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.08last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.5last 10
- Shots
- 16.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.6last 10
- Fouls
- 14.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.4last 10
Key players
- M. Gibbs-White1G 3A9 apps
- L. Delap3G 0A9 apps
- D. Ndoye2G 0A10 apps
Line movement
Bournemouth—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Nottingham Forest—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Bournemouth, shaped mainly by Attacking xG form (home) and Recent form (home). See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Attacking xG form (home)2.13Recent form (home)9.64Defensive xG form (home)1.04What's at stake (home)0.10Pi-rating edge0.34League id39.0
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.