Osasuna vs Malaga prediction
La LigaRound 13
Osasuna18:30
Sun 22 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
MalagaMost likelyOsasuna win · 58%
Best price1.82 Betano
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Osasuna win
Oddbert gives Osasuna a 58% chance of winning.
58%Osasuna
24%Draw
18%Malaga
In 100 matches like this, Osasuna would win about 58. In the other 42 or so, Osasuna doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Osasuna win 58, Draw 24, Malaga win 18.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
58%1OsasunaOsasuna winmarket 55%
24%XDrawDrawmarket 25%
18%2MalagaMalaga winmarket 20%
Our model vs market
Osasuna +3.0 ppDraw -1.5 ppMalaga -1.5 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 6 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Osasuna meet Malaga. The model leans toward Osasuna, shaped mainly by Attacking xG form (home) and Expected goals (home). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Osasunapays 4% more than the typical book | Drawpays 1% more than the typical book | Malagapays 1% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.82best | 3.65 | 4.45 |
| Marathonbet | 1.78 | 3.70best | 4.75best |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Osasuna at 1.82 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for Osasuna (58%), doesn't happen in about 42 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Osasuna
- D1-1AC
- L1-2DLC
- L0-2SEV
- W2-0RS
- L2-5RB
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Malaga
- L1-2RS
- L1-2RB
- D1-1ALA
- L2-5RS
- D1-1ESP
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Osasuna
Absence data is not available for this match.
Malaga
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Osasuna
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.30last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.72last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.2last 10
- Shots
- 11.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.6last 10
- Fouls
- 14.7last 10
- Yellow cards
- 3.0last 10
Key players
- A. Budimir7G 0A10 apps
- Catena1G 1A9 apps
- Moi Gómez0G 2A7 apps
Malaga
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.93last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.89last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.3last 10
- Shots
- 11.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.9last 10
- Fouls
- 11.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.5last 10
Key players
- Adrián Niño Heredia5G 1A8 apps
- Pablo Martínez1G 2A8 apps
- Carlos Dotor2G 0A9 apps
Line movement
Osasuna—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Malaga—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Osasuna, shaped mainly by Attacking xG form (home) and Expected goals (home). See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Expected goals (home)1.77League id140Attacking xG form (home)1.52Expected goals (away)0.75What's at stake (home)0.20Defensive xG form (home)1.77
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.