Lorient vs Rennes prediction
Ligue 1Round 11Stade du Moustoir
Lorient17:15
Sun 22 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
RennesMost likelyRennes win · 39%
Best price2.32 Betano
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Rennes win
Oddbert gives Rennes a 39% chance of winning.
35%Lorient
26%Draw
39%Rennes
In 100 matches like this, Rennes would win about 39. In the other 61 or so, Rennes doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Lorient win 35, Draw 26, Rennes win 39.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
35%1LorientLorient winmarket 32%
26%XDrawDrawmarket 26%
39%2RennesRennes winmarket 42%
Our model vs market
Lorient +3.0 ppDraw -0.0 ppRennes -3.0 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 6 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Lorient meet Rennes. The model leans only slightly toward Rennes in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Home advantage (team-tuned) and Attacking xG form (away). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Lorientpays 2% more than the typical book | Drawpays 4% more than the typical book | Rennespays 2% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.20 |
| Betano | 2.95 | 3.55 | 2.32best |
| Marathonbet | 3.00best | 3.68best | 2.28 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Rennes at 2.32 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
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Even the most likely result, a win for Rennes (39%), doesn't happen in about 61 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Lorient
- W2-0LH
- L0-2SB2
- D0-0ANG
- W1-0MON
- W1-0PF
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Rennes
- L1-2LIL
- D0-0OP
- L2-5NIC
- W3-0STR
- D2-2JUV
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Lorient
Absence data is not available for this match.
Rennes
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Lorient 2Draws 0Rennes 0
- REN 0-2 LOR
- LOR 4-0 REN
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Lorient
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.12last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.10last 10
- Clean sheets
- 6 / 10
- BTTS
- 3 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.3last 10
- Shots
- 10.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 2.8last 10
- Fouls
- 10.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 9
Key players
- P. Katseris0G 3A5 apps
- K. Kouassi0G 2A10 apps
- N. Cadiou1G 0A10 apps
Rennes
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.84last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.83last 9
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.5last 10
- Shots
- 16.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.1last 10
- Fouls
- 11.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.8last 10
Key players
- B. Dia6G 0A10 apps
- E. Lepaul4G 0A5 apps
- S. Szymański3G 0A8 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Stade du Moustoir, Lorient
- Surface
- Artificial turf
- Capacity
- 18,970
Line movement
Lorient—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Rennes—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans only slightly toward Rennes in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Home advantage (team-tuned) and Attacking xG form (away). See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Attacking xG form (away)1.63Pi-rating edge0.04Defensive xG form (away)1.61What's at stake (home)0.02Attacking xG form (home)1.06What's at stake (away)0.14
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.