Racing Santander vs Real Sociedad prediction
La LigaRound 13
Racing Santander16:15
Sun 22 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Real SociedadMost likelyReal Sociedad win · 43%
Best price2.12 Betano
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Real Sociedad win
Oddbert gives Real Sociedad a 43% chance of winning.
33%Racing Santander
24%Draw
43%Real Sociedad
In 100 matches like this, Real Sociedad would win about 43. In the other 57 or so, Real Sociedad doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Racing Santander win 33, Draw 24, Real Sociedad win 43.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
33%1Racing SantanderRacing Santander winmarket 30%
24%XDrawDrawmarket 24%
43%2Real SociedadReal Sociedad winmarket 46%
Our model vs market
Racing Santander +2.5 ppDraw +0.5 ppReal Sociedad -3.0 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 6 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Racing Santander meet Real Sociedad. The model leans only slightly toward Real Sociedad in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Expected goals (away). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Racing Santanderpays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 1% more than the typical book | Real Sociedadpays 1% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.80 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 3.10 | 3.90 | 2.12best |
| Marathonbet | 3.18best | 3.95best | 2.10 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Real Sociedad at 2.12 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for Real Sociedad (43%), doesn't happen in about 57 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Racing Santander
- W2-1MAL
- L0-3RM
- W2-1ESP
- L0-2OSA
- D2-2VAL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Real Sociedad
- W1-0RV
- D1-1LYO
- L1-2AC
- W2-1LEV
- W6-0LIL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Racing Santander
Absence data is not available for this match.
Real Sociedad
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Racing Santander
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.47last 10
- xG against / game
- 2.46last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.6last 10
- Shots
- 13.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.1last 10
- Fouls
- 11.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.6last 10
Key players
- M. Zabiri9G 0A10 apps
- Iñigo Vicente0G 3A10 apps
- Sergio Canales1G 1A10 apps
Real Sociedad
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.3last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.76last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.63last 9
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.5last 10
- Shots
- 15.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.8last 10
- Fouls
- 12.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.1last 10
Key players
- O. Óskarsson5G 0A9 apps
- Mikel Oyarzabal2G 3A9 apps
- L. Sučić4G 0A9 apps
Line movement
Racing Santander—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Real Sociedad—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans only slightly toward Real Sociedad in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Expected goals (away). See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Expected goals (home)2.02Expected goals (away)2.57Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)132Defensive xG form (home)2.21What's at stake (home)0.15Home advantage (team-tuned)107
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.