Chelsea vs Leeds prediction
Premier LeagueRound 11Stamford Bridge
Chelsea16:00
Sat 21 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
LeedsMost likelyChelsea win · 50%
Best price1.83 Marathonbet
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Chelsea win
Oddbert gives Chelsea a 50% chance of winning.
50%Chelsea
25%Draw
25%Leeds
In 100 matches like this, Chelsea would win about 50. In the other 50 or so, Chelsea doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Chelsea win 50, Draw 25, Leeds win 25.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
50%1ChelseaChelsea winmarket 54%
25%XDrawDrawmarket 24%
25%2LeedsLeeds winmarket 22%
Our model vs market
Chelsea -3.0 ppDraw +0.4 ppLeeds +2.6 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 9 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Chelsea meet Leeds. The model leans toward Chelsea, shaped mainly by Rest-days edge and What's at stake (away). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Chelseapays 2% more than the typical book | Drawpays 4% more than the typical book | Leedspays 4% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.60 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.83 | 3.75 | 4.25best |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.83best | 3.90best | 4.15 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Chelsea at 1.83 (Marathonbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for Chelsea (50%), doesn't happen in about 50 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Chelsea
- L0-1SUN
- W2-0MU
- L0-2TOT
- W2-0EVE
- W5-1BOU
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Leeds
- W1-0TOT
- L0-2BOU
- D0-0SUN
- D1-1MU
- L1-2ARS
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Chelsea
Absence data is not available for this match.
Leeds
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Chelsea 0Draws 1Leeds 1
- CHE 2-2 LEE
- LEE 3-1 CHE
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Chelsea
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.32last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.54last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.5last 10
- Shots
- 13.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.6last 10
- Fouls
- 9.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Key players
- Joao Pedro5G 3A6 apps
- M. Rogers5G 1A10 apps
- C. Palmer3G 3A10 apps
Leeds
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.31last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.27last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 2 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.3last 10
- Shots
- 12.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.7last 10
- Fouls
- 12.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Key players
- D. Calvert-Lewin3G 1A10 apps
- J. Bogle2G 0A10 apps
- N. Okafor2G 0A9 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Stamford Bridge, London
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 41,841
Line movement
Chelsea—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Leeds—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Chelsea, shaped mainly by Rest-days edge and What's at stake (away). See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
League id39.0What's at stake (away)0.04What's at stake (home)0.02Pi-rating edge0.18Home advantage (team-tuned)51.8Away form (away)2.89
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.