Twente vs Willem II prediction
EredivisieRound 13De Grolsch Veste
Twente12:15
Sun 22 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Willem IIMost likelyTwente win · 97%
Best price1.07 Betano
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Twente win
Oddbert gives Twente a 97% chance of winning.
97%Twente
1%Draw
2%Willem II
In 100 matches like this, Twente would win about 97. In the other 3 or so, Twente doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Twente win 97, Draw 1, Willem II win 2.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
97%1TwenteTwente winmarket 95%
1%XDrawDrawmarket 4%
2%2Willem IIWillem II winmarket 1%
Our model vs market
Twente +1.6 ppDraw -2.7 ppWillem II +1.1 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 4 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Twentepays 4% more than the typical book | Drawpays 8% more than the typical book | Willem IIpays 3% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.05 | 13.00 | 26.00 |
| Betano | 1.07best | 11.75 | 32.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.03 | 14.00best | 33.00best |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Twente at 1.07 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
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Even the most likely result, a win for Twente (97%), doesn't happen in about 3 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Twente
- D2-2AJA
- W3-1PAF
- W9-0EXC
- W2-0AA
- W4-1LRI
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Willem II
- D1-1PZ
- L0-7PE
- L1-6CAM
- L2-3SR
- L1-3UTR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Twente
Absence data is not available for this match.
Willem II
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Twente 2Draws 0Willem II 0
- TWE 6-2 WI
- WI 0-1 TWE
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Twente
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.75last 10
- xG against / game
- 0.69last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 7.6last 10
- Shots
- 21.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 7.6last 10
- Fouls
- 11.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.2last 10
Key players
- W. Weghorst8G 2A10 apps
- S. Ørjasæter2G 5A9 apps
- D. Weidmann3G 3A9 apps
Willem II
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 3.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.12last 10
- xG against / game
- 2.07last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.8last 10
- Shots
- 11.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.0last 10
- Fouls
- 9.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 8
Key players
- Uriel van Aalst2G 2A10 apps
- D. Haen2G 1A10 apps
- V. van Crooij0G 2A6 apps
Venue
- Venue
- De Grolsch Veste, Enschede
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 30,205
Line movement
Twente—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Willem II—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Twente result here; the model's main factors are Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Pi-rating edge. The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)471Pi-rating edge1.52Expected goals (home)3.91Defensive xG form (home)0.60Defensive xG form (away)2.03What's at stake (home)0.11
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.