Sevilla vs Real Betis prediction
La LigaRound 13
Sevilla18:30
Sat 21 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Real BetisMost likelyReal Betis win · 44%
Best price2.36 Marathonbet
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Real Betis win
Oddbert gives Real Betis a 44% chance of winning.
31%Sevilla
25%Draw
44%Real Betis
In 100 matches like this, Real Betis would win about 44. In the other 56 or so, Real Betis doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Sevilla win 31, Draw 25, Real Betis win 44.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
31%1SevillaSevilla winmarket 33%
25%XDrawDrawmarket 26%
44%2Real BetisReal Betis winmarket 41%
Our model vs market
Sevilla -2.4 ppDraw -0.6 ppReal Betis +3.0 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 9 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Sevilla meet Real Betis. The model leans only slightly toward Real Betis in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Sevillapays 5% more than the typical book | Drawpays 3% more than the typical book | Real Betispays 2% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 2.95best | 3.55 | 2.35 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| Marathonbet | 2.91 | 3.62best | 2.36best |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Real Betis at 2.36 (Marathonbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
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- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for Real Betis (44%), doesn't happen in about 56 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Sevilla
- D0-0ALA
- L1-3GET
- W2-0OSA
- L1-4RM
- D3-3LEV
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Real Betis
- W2-0ELC
- L1-2BD
- W2-1MAL
- D0-0CV
- W1-0FEY
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Sevilla
Absence data is not available for this match.
Real Betis
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Sevilla 1Draws 1Real Betis 2
- RB 2-2 SEV
- SEV 0-2 RB
- RB 2-1 SEV
- SEV 1-0 RB
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Sevilla
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.03last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.32last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.7last 10
- Shots
- 12.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.5last 10
- Fouls
- 14.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.3last 10
Key players
- Félix Correia2G 2A8 apps
- Y. Fofana1G 3A9 apps
- R. Ure1G 2A10 apps
Real Betis
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.3last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.54last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.47last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.5last 10
- Shots
- 16.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.2last 10
- Fouls
- 10.7last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Key players
- Isco4G 1A9 apps
- A. Ezzalzouli4G 1A10 apps
- C. Hernandez2G 1A5 apps
Line movement
Sevilla—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Real Betis—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans only slightly toward Real Betis in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-141Pi-rating edge-0.57What's at stake (home)0.01Attacking xG form (away)1.44Expected goals (away)1.57Defensive xG form (away)1.34
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.