1. FC Köln vs SV Elversberg prediction
BundesligaRound 11
1. FC Köln15:30
Sat 28 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
SV ElversbergMost likely1. FC Köln win · 39%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: 1. FC Köln win
Oddbert gives 1. FC Köln a 39% chance of winning.
39%1. FC Köln
26%Draw
35%SV Elversberg
In 100 matches like this, 1. FC Köln would win about 39. In the other 61 or so, 1. FC Köln doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: 1. FC Köln win 39, Draw 26, SV Elversberg win 35.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
39%11. FC Köln1. FC Köln win
26%XDrawDraw
35%2SV ElversbergSV Elversberg win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
1. FC Köln meet SV Elversberg. The model leans only slightly toward 1. FC Köln in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and League id. See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for 1. FC Köln (39%), doesn't happen in about 61 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
1. FC Köln
- L1-2BL
- D1-1UB
- D0-0FS0
- L0-1EF
- W2-1BM
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
SV Elversberg
- L1-2BD
- W4-1FM0
- L0-4RL
- W4-3FA
- L0-1UB
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
1. FC Köln
Absence data is not available for this match.
SV Elversberg
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
1. FC Köln
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.43last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.66last 9
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.4last 10
- Shots
- 14.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.7last 10
- Fouls
- 10.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.3last 10
Key players
- S. El Mala4G 0A9 apps
- L. Maina1G 2A10 apps
- T. Dallinga2G 0A3 apps
SV Elversberg
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.38last 9
- xG against / game
- 2.02last 9
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.2last 10
- Shots
- 10.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.4last 10
- Fouls
- 12.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.6last 10
Key players
- M. Krattenmacher4G 1A9 apps
- L. Petkov2G 2A10 apps
- F. Keidel2G 1A9 apps
Line movement
1. FC Köln—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
SV Elversberg—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans only slightly toward 1. FC Köln in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and League id. This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-0.20League id78.0What's at stake (home)0.16Expected goals (away)1.96Recent form (home)2.44What's at stake (away)0.09
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.