1899 Hoffenheim vs Sturm Graz prediction
UEFA Europa LeagueRound League Stage - 5
1899 Hoffenheim21:00
Thu 26 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Sturm GrazMost likely1899 Hoffenheim win · 59%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: 1899 Hoffenheim win
Oddbert gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 59% chance of winning.
59%1899 Hoffenheim
22%Draw
19%Sturm Graz
In 100 matches like this, 1899 Hoffenheim would win about 59. In the other 41 or so, 1899 Hoffenheim doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: 1899 Hoffenheim win 59, Draw 22, Sturm Graz win 19.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
59%11899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim win
22%XDrawDraw
19%2Sturm GrazSturm Graz win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
1899 Hoffenheim meet Sturm Graz. The model leans toward 1899 Hoffenheim, shaped mainly by What's at stake (away) and What's at stake (home). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for 1899 Hoffenheim (59%), doesn't happen in about 41 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
1899 Hoffenheim
- W2-1FS0
- D1-1CP
- L0-2WB
- W3-0BL
- W3-0LYO
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Sturm Graz
- L2-3CEL
- W1-0MAR
- L0-3BOU
- D0-0REN
- L0-1FEN
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
1899 Hoffenheim
Absence data is not available for this match.
Sturm Graz
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
1899 Hoffenheim
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.70last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.33last 9
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.4last 10
- Shots
- 17.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.9last 10
- Fouls
- 14.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Key players
- A. Kramarić2G 3A10 apps
- A. Prass3G 1A7 apps
- F. Asllani2G 2A10 apps
Sturm Graz
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.15last 5
- xG against / game
- 1.66last 5
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 1 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.1last 10
- Shots
- 13.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.2last 10
- Fouls
- 16.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Key players
- O. Diakité3G 0A4 apps
- Luca Weinhandl1G 2A9 apps
- J. Gorenc Stankovič1G 1A10 apps
Line movement
1899 Hoffenheim—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Sturm Graz—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward 1899 Hoffenheim, shaped mainly by What's at stake (away) and What's at stake (home). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
What's at stake (away)0.00What's at stake (home)0.00Pi-rating edge0.46Expected goals (home)2.00Expected goals (away)0.44Attacking xG form (away)2.70
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.