Aarhus vs Lyngby prediction
SuperligaRound 15
Aarhus19:00
Fri 20 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
LyngbyMost likelyAarhus win · 65%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Aarhus win
Oddbert gives Aarhus a 65% chance of winning.
65%Aarhus
24%Draw
11%Lyngby
In 100 matches like this, Aarhus would win about 65. In the other 35 or so, Aarhus doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Aarhus win 65, Draw 24, Lyngby win 11.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
65%1AarhusAarhus win
24%XDrawDraw
11%2LyngbyLyngby win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Aarhus meet Lyngby. The model leans toward Aarhus, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Aarhus (65%), doesn't happen in about 35 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Aarhus
- W2-0AH
- D0-0SB
- L0-2BRO
- W2-1VIB
- D1-1ER
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Lyngby
- L0-1SIL
- W2-1RF
- L2-3FM
- D3-3FN
- L2-5BRO
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Aarhus
Absence data is not available for this match.
Lyngby
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Aarhus 1Draws 2Lyngby 0
- LYN 2-2 AAR
- AAR 2-1 LYN
- LYN 0-0 AAR
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Aarhus
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.25last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.69last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.0last 10
- Shots
- 11.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.1last 10
- Fouls
- 9.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.5last 10
Key players
- J. Andersen1G 2A10 apps
- Janni Serra2G 0A5 apps
- Kristian Arnstad1G 1A9 apps
Lyngby
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.52last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.75last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.2last 10
- Shots
- 13.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.4last 10
- Fouls
- 13.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.1last 10
Key players
- S. Colyn4G 3A8 apps
- Í. Þorvaldsson3G 2A9 apps
- F. Gytkjær2G 1A9 apps
Line movement
Aarhus—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Lyngby—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Aarhus, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge0.70Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)191Defensive xG form (home)1.46What's at stake (away)0.29Expected goals (home)2.31Attacking xG form (home)1.59
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.